36 Comments
User's avatar
Tom the Piper's Son's avatar

The villain fox that kills ducklings is the hero fox that feeds its kits. No right or wrong in (the rest of) nature - just consequences. I was top-heavy silver, bought more Friday, more this morning. My version of Belichick "just getting ready for Cincinatti" is "5 year strategy, 5 year tactics" (my panic-managing mantra).

Wisdom is garnered from often-painful experiences studied, sifted out from emotion and articulated.

Thanks again for your wisdom!

Alyosha's avatar

"The villain fox that kills ducklings is the hero fox that feeds its kits." Like it!

Rick Newman's avatar

Yeah this whole engineered smash makes me angry. It was very controlled and constant so as not to trigger halts in trade for hours on end. I guess. China will start mopping up the floor with prices lower.

The day of reconning when the physical smashes paper is coming. They just delayed it a bit so some fat cats could get out from under their short positions. (Probably on the too big to fail list)

Why put silver on the critical mineral list for the USA then smash the price and send even more to the far East?

Alyosha's avatar

I think $120 was a critical number. it had be stopped. Where it is now isn't the point. Gold and silver had to be stopped. This is the beach after the storm... I have no clue what happens next.

Rick Newman's avatar

No doubt they were going up too fast.

Alyosha's avatar

I owe you an apology Rick. I didn't read the substack in detail util this morning and I made an ass of me by assuming the lease was done in january and not expiring in january. I covered ICBC for several years and at the time they traded enormous quantities of silver with us. So for them to do a deal like that with JPM the counterparties would probably be ICBC London ... sounds well within the realm of possible.

Rick Newman's avatar

I appreciate you reading it further. I don’t mean to bog you down with too much info. Thank you for your replies and good work.

Alyosha's avatar

I appreciate you helping me... ty sir

Alyosha's avatar

I have not, Rick ... That would fit with the massive selling in SLV last week...They'd need it to create shares and short interst in SLV was 62.5 million on Thursday... hard to borrow another 128, 000,000 shares so having 4000 tonnes solves that. ....

It doesn't fit with Comex open interest. 4000 tonnes is about 25,500/ 26,000 lots and OI is down 14 k since last Monday.

China would not lease it for free.. leasing is going to be expnsive and onces leased metal is sold it is short metal.... JPM will need to be nimble to get it back if in fact it's true. ..have a look at the evening wrap tonight. Seeing signs of support here.

Andy Fately's avatar

I guess the question is, who is buying all the silver at these newly depressed prices. would an arm of the government step in (it's strategic after all) and take advantage of the move? wouldn't that be another sh*tstorm if it did? I'm with Tom here, the fundamentals remain the same, and the real buyers still need the stuff

Alyosha's avatar

Exactly ... There's no physical here. if there wre ounces to be had they on a plane to China...

Paul C's avatar

JJ… damn … you’re such a pleasure to read… “The obscure we eventually see. The completely obvious, it seems, takes longer..” Cheers

Alyosha's avatar

Cheers Paul, ty sir.

Victor Adair's avatar

Thanks, JJ. I'm old enough to remember when US futures had limits. The horror stories were about markets locked limit for several days in a row. I'm also old enough to remember that customers were often given three days to meet a margin call. You know, the cheque's in the mail!

Alyosha's avatar

Hi Victor, yes sir... let's have lunch! haha

Petra Kehr's avatar

The 633 Lots JPM (and only them) was covering on friday - at the exact bottom - is all over the place. What is your take on that?

Alyosha's avatar

Hi Petra... I think they received 633 lots of deliveries which are a typical DVP conclusion to a transaction priced on the exchange at a previous date. So yes they did take in 63,300 ounces of gold (was it gold? if it was silver still small at ca 3 mm toz) ) but that is a very small quantity. I think the rules and reg agencies are the big problem.

Jay's avatar

Was listed as (c) client activity

Might have been linked to the management of some of the short based ETFs and the reduction in OI they had when they snapped at 1.24 est

Petra Kehr's avatar

Thank You Jay ❗

BowTiedPermie's avatar

Its a game. Everyone is playing. Only a select few have a controller.

Brian Clavin's avatar

“ If powerful forces in the markets can put silver down 40% in a single session, they can try to save bitcoin.”

Let’s remember this one.

It could prove invaluable over the coming couple of quarters….and Beyond.

Bill's avatar

Excellent write up. Cheers JJ

Ethan's avatar

"I like XXXXXX so I don’t look at it every day wondering what I think." and "It’s not up to the T-Rexes to be fair." Two more great lines for the JJ Pyramid of Trading Greatness (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIoSV-obhu4&t=7s)

Petty Rage Machine's avatar

They can’t crash the stock exchanges anymore due to the 0 Day Casino and, well, math, so instead we get gold, silver and BTC being used as the “Gimp” from Pulp Fiction. Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink licking their lips as they await their turns in the back.

Someone got a raise for this one. Trust me.

Yo mismo soy el regalo's avatar

The great birds of prey say "but we love the little lambs, they are so delicious." Nietzsche

Oprahsbookclub's avatar

Epstein said in one of his emails he’d ’Been in touch with the founders of bitcoin’.

Petra Kehr's avatar

If true, real Hydra.

Oprahsbookclub's avatar

The email is verified.

And in an email to Peter Thiel he says ‘you know I represent the Rothschild’s’

I guess the tin hats were right all along!

Alyosha's avatar

GM OBC, I'm trying to avoid mixing Epstein with bitcoin if I can help it.... but ty for keeping an eye out for me. I have a tin ball cap because I prefer a visor the cut the glare...

Oprahsbookclub's avatar

Good morning Alyosha!

Yes it does all start to feel a little too on the nose

https://youtu.be/5WvMb1cTwvs?si=L9WvVz9cE16He9AD

Petra Kehr's avatar

On another Substack I just dropped a note saying:

"Please don't spoil my little CT, during C19 Scam I've ran out of all of them!"

Phil Coleman's avatar

Pardon the question from a non-trader but what are the mechanics behind how silver can drop so precipitously in one day. I've been reading JJ's commentary but am unfamiliar with some of the terminology. Are the big banks spoofing sales to cause a drop? In future, how to know this in advance? Thanks for any understanding you may be able to provide.