one step at a time

market vibes

October 13…)

“Everybody’s talkin’ ‘bout revolution, evolution, masturbation
Castration, United Nations, congratulations!” John and Yoko Lennon

The Rubicon flows both ways for ancient enemies today.

October 13, 2025, is Columbus Day (a federal holiday since 1937) and Indigenous Peoples’ Day depending on your state of residence. It’s also the birthday of U.S. Navy, in honor of which I am reposting a memoir.

Cloak and dagger trading activity in Bitcoin and the timing and delivery of these tariff developments imply US stock markets are becoming weaponized and vulnerable. Food for thought… The silver squeeze made it into Bloomberg’s “Top News.”

In the markets

Another record high in gold. Open interest is still unchanged after 3 million lots of turnover and > 10% rally in two weeks.

Comex silver has yet to trade $50/ toz, although I read London spot is traded $52.50 at a new record high today. SLV settles basis LBMA spot. APs will need LBMA to create shares on the Friday SLV option expiry if prices stay here. I haven’t seen anything in futures data to indicate the short has covered except perhaps the spike to $49.96 last Thursday and that was a pump and dump.

S&P OI rose 27,000 lots on Friday, meaning new positions share an average entry price = the midpoint of the range on October 10. Right now it’s a push. New lows will attract CTA liquidation and defensive selling. Looking at the chart, my guess is it will take a new all-time high close to turn the market around to technically bullish. Falling prices and rising OI and volume would be negative.

I don’t have the Saturday ranges in CME BTC futures, which are a key expression of support, but without them IBIT and October futures look negative.

The dollar is still rangebound with an upward bias. Macron is still in limited power despite his unpopularity and the new PM in Japan is becoming a fact. Usually markets get overbought at the top of long-term ranges. I don’t see that changing in USDFX unless there’s another unforeseen development with China. For now more tension means higher USD.

In other markets, copper is tracking the stock market; PGMs are tracking gold.

my vibe

The consensus is Trump holds very high cards in this latest episode of trade hostilities. However, if Trump had not tweeted an off ramp for Xi yesterday stocks would be lower, gold would be even higher.

Paraphrasing Scott Bessent on Maria B this morning, [the US and China] are going to keep talking but stressed our alliances are being affirmed in Europe and Asia. Things are escalating now but don’t worry. We are prepared. This issue with China needs to be addressed sooner than later. “Everything is on the table and America is willing to do whatever it takes. We do not want to decouple with China but when they send out messages like this, this is a decoupling message.” When he said it, stocks slipped 20 handles.

Trump at the Knesset a few minutes ago: “And after so many years of unceasing war and endless danger, today the skies are calm, the guns are silent, the sirens are still, and the sun rises on a Holy Land that is finally at peace.”

Let it be so…

JJ

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

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