keep a diary
market vibes
“Memory is deceptive because it is colored by today’s events.” Albert Einstein
Market vibes is written to be read like the back pages of the Wall Street Journal in another century wrapping coffee grinds and bacon fat for the outgoing garbage. My writing is not enduring history, rather a diary of life. It’s a report that moves with the market and its narratives, it’s mood and technical context on the fly. Analysis, I think, is simply a mixture of memories and data. Present and past information is repurposed like the back pages of yesterday’s news, and through that lens if not to see the future, be prepared for it.
I rarely read my past writings. There are so many of them! But occasionally I do prowl in my archives if I wake in the night with an idea and there is no handy impartation to verify a hunch. For instance, I realized this morning I really had no idea what happened to “the market” in October. I know gold and silver were wild, but my memory was like an unmade bed.
If I had asked Grok, “What happened in the ‘markets’ in October?” Grok would think for 3 to 5 seconds and sling 500 words and random data on the screen. So, I decided to dig into the Market Vibes archives and reread a raw record of what transpired day by day to curate a moody history of technical context and facts, and write about it, something I had never done before.
I discovered two things: how little I knew at the time of writing and how much I had forgotten of what I knew. Secondly, Market Vibes is a bit like listening to a singer in a bar fight telling a story that leans heavily on the reader’s imagination. I would wager short odds you will agree with me when you get to the vibe.
let’s begin
mid-day update- September 30 quarter end
evening wrap October 1 the shutdown begins
frank-n-furters - October 3 Silver was heating up; gold was quietly pushing above $3,900; bitcoin was over $120,000 and flying.
quarterly charts/ comments - Sunday afternoon October 5 This was and is instructive even for me, the author who can’t remember what he’s written! Especially the stock market and oil.
phase locked - Monday October 6 Bitcoin made an all-time high in the overnight session. Check the link in BTC comments. Futures did not make an ATH and began a $32,000 sell-off. Gold gapped through $3,900 to a new ATH. Macquarie says the looming oil glut is “cartoonish.”
Let’s pause here.
These are the early days of the month and quarter, setting the stage for a melt-up in precious metals, including platinum and palladium. Stocks were docile; the dollar and bonds were strong. Bitcoin was about to drop $7,000, 6% in a single session on Friday.
