mid-day update sptember 30

market vibes

Good afternoon,

I didn’t send a note this morning because gold had an abrupt sell-off in the early hours of London trading from 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM EDT. Quarter end is not a good day to analyze markets at 5:00 AM (lol) and I wanted to give it time to settle down. However, prices stabilized on the US equity open and are back on trend in quiet trading as I write.

Apart from volumes which were fairly high overnight due to the size of the range, technical changes since yesterday were negligible. Open interest is a little higher in gold and down 3000 in silver on modest profit-taking and short covering. The rest of the day should be uneventful with some window dressing towards the Comex pit close in a few minutes.

Generally, these end-of-quarter days are whippy, and this one was no different…actually it’s on the quiet side.

Gold in hourly data

In silver, the range was wider, falling $1.40 from high to low. The SLV people are scrambling to locate shares at a new high for “cost to borrow” according to bloggers on X.

Silver in hourly data is choppy but nothing notable that would damage the larger trend, imo.

In other markets, stocks are well defended as expected. Bitcoin is neither weak nor strong but it’s down again. Fwiw CME BTC futures are trading lower in roll adjusted data today than they were last December. Oil is finding support at $62.00.

Despite an exciting spill in metals overnight that most us slept through, nothing has changed as far as life on earth is concerned… only the calendar turning the last page of September 2025 to October...

I’ll be back later with more color in the wrap.

cheers…

JJ

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

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