voter ID, paper ballots, 1 day to vote and count. The system works. The law that it's built on is fetid. The only way out is to vote them out and we can't vote them out until the vote is right. And...Don't make perfect the enemy of good!
This is the second time we have had a major outage in the past month or two which had significant impacts on businesses all over the place. as with everything else, accepting fragility to improve efficiency in electronic businesses could be the problem we are seeing in power grids all over again. let's ask the Spanish how that worked out.
Looked at NVDAs latest decline, which coincides with when (Nov. 10th) Japan "changed the game"... so not impossible that NVDA and BTC are connected to carry-traders having to get out of their positions, or am I barking up the wrong tree?
It's a big question but I think the August 5, 2024 carry squeeze may have transferred alot of risk to longer dates. The BIS estmated the notional value of the yen carry at 15 Trillion in 2005. Deutsche bank estimated it > 20 trillion in 20220ish but no one really knows how big it is. These estimates are reverse engneered from TICs and CB flow data. Some estimates of the total notional global swap rissk is > a quadrillion.
Deconstucting a yen carry trade: 1) borrow yen (you need collateral or strong lines), buy usd/jpy, buy bitcoin and NVidia in USD 50/50. Bitcoin sux (-), the yen is lower (+)cost to borrow is up(-) and NVidia is way up. so it might be a push? The Yen FX and rising int rate are offsetting. BTC and NVidia are offsetting...
When energy goes down, we'll have a lot bigger problems to worry about about crypto... just sayin'
I wonder what we could see if someone plots major political and corruption scandals on a chart of Bitcoin?
Thought you may like Mike Green's latest article (No paywall): "Are You An American?
"They" Are Preparing You for "Hard Times" https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/are-you-an-american
Ty sir. I well written, well said... I quoted Orwell's Animal farm on Nov 7 in "hold my beer" ...
https://jj745.substack.com/p/hold-my-beer
my 2 cents on reform:
voter ID, paper ballots, 1 day to vote and count. The system works. The law that it's built on is fetid. The only way out is to vote them out and we can't vote them out until the vote is right. And...Don't make perfect the enemy of good!
Great article. Green identified something wearying that's heretofore gone nameless, the Mockery Machine.
This is the second time we have had a major outage in the past month or two which had significant impacts on businesses all over the place. as with everything else, accepting fragility to improve efficiency in electronic businesses could be the problem we are seeing in power grids all over again. let's ask the Spanish how that worked out.
no se puede!
Looked at NVDAs latest decline, which coincides with when (Nov. 10th) Japan "changed the game"... so not impossible that NVDA and BTC are connected to carry-traders having to get out of their positions, or am I barking up the wrong tree?
Bill Cara wrote about it here: https://www.billcara.com/p/an-alarming-report-on-social-media
It's a big question but I think the August 5, 2024 carry squeeze may have transferred alot of risk to longer dates. The BIS estmated the notional value of the yen carry at 15 Trillion in 2005. Deutsche bank estimated it > 20 trillion in 20220ish but no one really knows how big it is. These estimates are reverse engneered from TICs and CB flow data. Some estimates of the total notional global swap rissk is > a quadrillion.
Deconstucting a yen carry trade: 1) borrow yen (you need collateral or strong lines), buy usd/jpy, buy bitcoin and NVidia in USD 50/50. Bitcoin sux (-), the yen is lower (+)cost to borrow is up(-) and NVidia is way up. so it might be a push? The Yen FX and rising int rate are offsetting. BTC and NVidia are offsetting...