just sayin

market vibes

Nov 18, 2025

November 18…)

Cloudflare had a massive outage this morning taking down X, web searches, Chrome and Open AI.

In the news

The drumbeat on both sides of the aisle for a full release of the Epstein files is reaching a crescendo this morning. Why not call Ghislaine Maxwell to Congress and put her under oath … or am I wrong?

Bloomberg’s Monday evening lede in front of Friday’s NFP: “The job market is heating up for jobs that people don’t want.” No further comment needed on that. Jeff Gundlach says all assets are overvalued. Musk expected to attend Trump’s dinner with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud tonight. That has my attention.

More debt: Meta’s equity is already beginning to suffer.

Finally this in front of NVidia’s report tomorrow: 50/50: Charting the evidence from history:

In the markets

The Dow enters the NY session on the lows of a 4 day down auction of lower highs and lower lows. Settlement last night was under the 50 D MA for the 1st time since October 10, a Friday from which the issue was resolved over the weekend. Not the the case today.

S&Ps are probably going to test the October lows before NVidia’s earnings. If for some reason stocks do rally today there will be risk-off sellers saying, “Thank you.”

CME December Yen is grinding lower.

December gold solidly rejected the dip under $4000 and helfd the point of control at $4010 again. The 50 day MA in gold is $3974.00.

Silver was well under $50.00 again this morning and rallied. SLV trading +/- $46ish as I write. Anecdotally from memory the pattern has been for SLV short sellers accumulate inventory of borrowed shares and silver and press prices lower in front of the expiry and flood the market with shares, futures and silver on Friday. If I had a few billion and and that scenario were to unfold, I’d buy it all. I have often written Fridays can be good days for bargain hunters in silver.

We’ll see what happens this week. Platinum, palladium and copper are all steady at their recent range bottoms and perched on their 50 D MAs.

November BTC futures dipped under $90K overnight and rallied. The mood and narratives are uniformaly bearish; mostly disheartened investors and the usual anti-Saylor- MSTR critics. It’s probably a mix of reasons but mostly fatigue with a loser, imo.

In other markets the dollar and oil are utterly and completely unchanged and balanced.

my vibe

Markets may be a little overdone. Considering the impact of news Wednesday, Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Thursday, and NFP Friday some book squaring might rally stocks and BTC later in the session. Gold is probably not in this NVidia shuffle. The script for the SLV OPEX was written in October, imo.

If S&Ps turn with force, bitcoin will turn with force, in my opinion. If S&Ps fail here and enter a real correction for a panoply of reasons ( valuation, FOMC rates, AI employment uncertainty etc…), bitcoin will fall farther and faster.

Interesting fact: 60% of women voted for Mamdani, 84% of females aged 18–29 and 65% aged 30–45. It is what it is.

Cathie Wood on bitcoin

and this from an X poster

Sorry to be so late publishing this morning but this Cloudflare thing blocked my Chrome and all web searches highlighting vulnerabilties looming as AI consumes everything including energy. When energy goes down, crypto is worthless…. just sayin’

If you like reading market vibes please hit the like button, and type in your e mail below to become a free or paid-up subscriber. Thank you.

Share selectively with friends and colleagues and follow me on X @Alyosha745

Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

Market vibes is not a registered investment advisor, and comments are for informational use only. Any mention of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or any other instrument.