Hi maxim, I always say, "Trade the market getting. Trade the P&L getting out." Miners have outperformed but they are primarily stocks and you're not long gold you're long earnings which are (have been and will be) fundamentally very profitable. For me ... when ever I have doubts I cut my risk.
As a fairly recent arrival at looking at the mining sector, something I find a very odd earnings-related feature of the space is how analyst earnings estimates / FPEs are so divorced from / lagging to the commodity prices. If AAPL could raise all of its prices 10% in a month, with a guarantee to move just as many units, those analysts might tweak their forecasts!
I’m very curious to see (and bullish on) majors’/mids’ Q3 earnings, and, if Q4 spot gold holds even just above $3.5k, FY 2025 will be…hoo boy!
Want to offer a thought. The CCP for decades has been a staunch sponsor of Palestinian terrorism (from Arafat's time or before). A very under-reported phenomenon. And so now China finds Hezbollah in ruins, Iran bombed, and Hamas about to capitulate (for the moment). So, yes, China's not happy with the loss of their clients who have successfully made trouble for Israel, the US, and the West. And at the same time, The Trump Admin has come along side KSA, Qatar, etc., building on the Abraham accords. Stealing the spotlight...
Very happy to see gold toggle to have a positive correlation to bonds on a day like today (and get to spend the weekend at $4k!), after having had a positive correlation to stocks the last couple months. If gold can be a risk ON *and* a risk OFF….
“You never have enough when you’re right. Be grateful for too little when you’re wrong.”
IYKYK
What’s your take on Gold and Silver companies’ share price? They tanked last Friday
Hi maxim, I always say, "Trade the market getting. Trade the P&L getting out." Miners have outperformed but they are primarily stocks and you're not long gold you're long earnings which are (have been and will be) fundamentally very profitable. For me ... when ever I have doubts I cut my risk.
As a fairly recent arrival at looking at the mining sector, something I find a very odd earnings-related feature of the space is how analyst earnings estimates / FPEs are so divorced from / lagging to the commodity prices. If AAPL could raise all of its prices 10% in a month, with a guarantee to move just as many units, those analysts might tweak their forecasts!
I’m very curious to see (and bullish on) majors’/mids’ Q3 earnings, and, if Q4 spot gold holds even just above $3.5k, FY 2025 will be…hoo boy!
lol…From your keyboard to God’s eyes!
Change in the Levant between last week and now is quantum. Maybe it’s there, maybe not.
Hopefully more than a last ditch headline to sway Scandinavians that saw it coming last year, but with influencers dictating policy . ..?
I try not to be cynical. 🦦
😂
Not everyone thinks the peace in Gaza is real. Here is a Substack from Chris Hedges, who spent a lot of time there over the decades.
https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/trumps-sham-peace-plan?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=778851&post_id=175841176&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=f0152&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Excellent IMO. Thanks
Sentiment Check (I replied): https://x.com/DefiWimar/status/1976760131493773431
https://x.com/DefiWimar/status/1970009291647021566
He's doing this regularly 😂
Someone’s in over their ski’s.. 😄
Hi,
Want to offer a thought. The CCP for decades has been a staunch sponsor of Palestinian terrorism (from Arafat's time or before). A very under-reported phenomenon. And so now China finds Hezbollah in ruins, Iran bombed, and Hamas about to capitulate (for the moment). So, yes, China's not happy with the loss of their clients who have successfully made trouble for Israel, the US, and the West. And at the same time, The Trump Admin has come along side KSA, Qatar, etc., building on the Abraham accords. Stealing the spotlight...
Very happy to see gold toggle to have a positive correlation to bonds on a day like today (and get to spend the weekend at $4k!), after having had a positive correlation to stocks the last couple months. If gold can be a risk ON *and* a risk OFF….
Around 6.30 PM NYT Crypto crashed in Seconds to minutes by 20/30% and in some cases rebounded as quick. Not even visible in a day Chart.
But remains very weak as I write. BTC 12K, ETH 700, XRP .60 aso