friday wrap, october 10

market vibes

“Gratitude is the sign of noble souls.” Aesop

It was shaping up to be an easy Friday after a frantic Thursday. The stock markets were settled and calm. Silver was recovering nicely, and then about 11:00 AM Trump tweeted a post on Truth:

“[This] was a real surprise, not only to me, but to all the Leaders of the Free World. I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so.” It was an insult from China to the world on a day the world was celebrating a peace not unlike VE day in 1945 for the middle east.

The S&P lost a trillion dollars in 30 minutes. Oil was already down $2.00 per barrel on news that was 2 days old. Gold and silver were stable, and Trumps tweet added a bid to both. Copper crashed 20 handles. The dollar eased a few ticks.

Charts

The S&Ps held the Sept 17 FOMC low, but the shape of the breakdown and sell-side demand for liquidity implied there will be more on Monday (or Sunday night). If this presidentail umbrage is not reconciled by Xi before 6 PM Sunday evening, we’re going lower, imo.

Silver posted a high volume isolated high on Thursday. The market was flooded with derivatives for a reason. But it’s not over for either long or shorts, in my opinion. Thursday was a battle in a war that has lasted 4 decades. I am a passive long, and I plan to keep my silver.

The trend in gold is still in force. I see rate cuts in the queue and an AI boom and not-so-subtle global strategy to debase all paper money in a coordinated decline. China and Trump are at odds now. China started it. Trump won’t blink. Is a tariff war a cold gold war? I doubt it. China will keep buying gold and foisting RMB wherever they trade, e.g., the iron ore deal with BHP for instance.

Bitcoin fell $7000 … oofff.

WTI finished down $3.25 per barrel, now just 5% from the April lows…. All WTI spreads crashed.

my vibe

When I wrote on Wednesday “the markets have changed,” I didn’t expect things to go bananas the next day. But here we are. Trump is going to keep pounding. Oil is out of the cage. Silver doesn’t look scary to me. Stocks look scary. Long bonds had a great day, ending a very good week for the Treasury.

No one is going to sell their gold or Monster Boxes. Let the nihilists sell gold and silver short and say thank you…. You never have enough when you’re right. Be grateful for too little when you’re wrong.

moody music

tgif!!

JJ

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