OPEC adding bbls is not bearish. It’s bullish! The market trades at the margin and reducing supply capacity (which is occurring as new bbls come to market) is a bullish event Just as taking bbls off the market is not bullish as it increases supply capacity at the margin. US crude inventories have barely moved in last couple years and there is > 250 mln bbls to replace in Strategic Reserve. The time to buy crude was when OPEC started returning 2.2 million supply cuts to market.
Not sure if I’m missing a step or two in the copper story, but from what I understand, via Bloomberg, the “buy before tariffs” is very much in play, with considerable quantities already shipped from China, and elsewhere. Plenty has already landed Stateside, with more still on the water trying to beat a possible deadline.
Set-up for a sell-off? Even if only short term? As someone we know is found of saying, “You decide.”
In case it hasn’t crossed your path yet, or I’m mixing up stories?
I am pointing out the lack of exchange data to confirm the arb. OI went down on Thursday… but It’s quite possible physical metal is being loaded and shipped by trade houses like Trafi and glencore that is not being sold on COMEX to capture the arb. Twenty days from notice to deadline to go from Asia or anywhere is a short window.
I remember when the Hunt brothers cornered the silver market. Tough sledding.
HAGW JJ
OPEC adding bbls is not bearish. It’s bullish! The market trades at the margin and reducing supply capacity (which is occurring as new bbls come to market) is a bullish event Just as taking bbls off the market is not bullish as it increases supply capacity at the margin. US crude inventories have barely moved in last couple years and there is > 250 mln bbls to replace in Strategic Reserve. The time to buy crude was when OPEC started returning 2.2 million supply cuts to market.
Maybe. Have a look at the WTI Auggie/Sept/Oct fly… total free fall. Margins are up bc crude is relaxing. Maybe we go nowhere? I don’t see up.
Not sure if I’m missing a step or two in the copper story, but from what I understand, via Bloomberg, the “buy before tariffs” is very much in play, with considerable quantities already shipped from China, and elsewhere. Plenty has already landed Stateside, with more still on the water trying to beat a possible deadline.
Set-up for a sell-off? Even if only short term? As someone we know is found of saying, “You decide.”
In case it hasn’t crossed your path yet, or I’m mixing up stories?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-07-11/trump-s-copper-tariffs-deadline-marks-end-of-once-in-a-generation-trade
Have a great Summer weekend.
Hi Leslie… I saw something like that as well.
I am pointing out the lack of exchange data to confirm the arb. OI went down on Thursday… but It’s quite possible physical metal is being loaded and shipped by trade houses like Trafi and glencore that is not being sold on COMEX to capture the arb. Twenty days from notice to deadline to go from Asia or anywhere is a short window.
I guess all we can say for sure is prices are on the rise.
Appreciate the reply and your time.
TY.