friday wrap, july 11

market vibes

6:20 PM … Running late! Just charts and comments tonight.

In the markets today

Silver didn’t make all-time highs today, but it felt like it. A market that clings to its highs implies unfilled buying below, and that was never truer than these last 24 hours from yesterday’s pit close to the last minute of the session this afternoon.

There was a minor expiration in SLV today with a likely call for around 2 million shares (ounces) of ATMs. Next week, the gamma will be much bigger. The CFTC reported spec length was lower in silver for a third straight week.

Platinum actually looks better than silver. The CFTC reported lower spec length for a second week, and the general level of spec longs in platinum hasn’t changed since May 27. Not crowded at all.

I would not be too critical of gold for underperforming. When it does move, it will be swift and vertical. For now, falling OI implies AUM moving to silver, platinum, and Bitcoin. Comex gold inventories are comming down gradually about 1 mm toz per month.

Copper settled a few cents lower on the COMEX and $40 lower on the LME. The arb is open, but COMEX is not showing much evidence of a play. Booking ships and acquiring enough to make it work is probably impossible on a large scale with 20 days to do it.

However, without doing a full autopsy on the London/NY EFP thing, the fact is tariffs have been very bullish for gold and silver. I think they will be equally bullish for copper, maybe more so since no one had a chance to ship in extra inventory before the deadline.

One more thing: China runs the show in copper, and Trump is going to make a play for it; steel and aluminum, too. I’m not sure how, but a tiger doesn’t change his stripes.

Bitcoin posted another all-time high. There is a hint of technical acceleration in volume and stochastics, not much in open interest yet, but the gap looks spirited, and gaps don’t have to be filled in trends; ranges always do.

There is nothing left to analyze in Bitcoin now. We don’t know where we’re going or when we’ll get there. Enjoy the ride!

The dollar took a few more baby steps higher today and finished the week on a new high for the month. There is a small gap from 98.20 to 98.35 in the DXY spot index. it should fill next week, maybe before CPI. Gold might trade with some sensitivity to the dollar. Silver and platinum might ignore it.

my vibe

I’ll spare you another chart of the city morgue S&P. The index of 500 equities is in a literal state of rigor mortis. I bought S&P several times this week and got stopped out every time, and fwiw, I don’t chase rallies. There is something about that kind of reality that makes you think, “Maybe I shouldn’t be here.” I remember saying the exact same thing last January, even joking I had exhausted my thesaurus to describe it! True, 100%.

I had a mixed week in oil. I’m bearish, so no further comment is necessary, but I am mindful of size and careful to sell rallies. As you know, I am a passive long in silver, and I don’t regret losing half the position three dollars lower. If I add up here, it’s a trade not a position.

I’ve been in and out of platinum a few times. You could say my tail is up, and I’m in the hunt. If I can get enough free exposure, I might tie the knot and hang on. I’ looking for a spot to get into copper. I just don’t trust my grasp of Chinese specs. They might be selling off some gold to buy silver. It sure looks like it and the ratio took a vicious hit since April, down 20%. I don’t get the feeling they’re buying copper yet.

I’ll leave you with an old adage from the pit: “Try not to do too much guessing. If the trade’s no good, don’t do it.” I still think there’s a whale short silver. God help him if I’m right.

Have an excellent weekend!

JJ

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