evening wrap
market vibes
October 1…)
In the final days of September, stock index futures posted their highs in the first few minutes of trading and closed lower. Sellers dominated the opening again on Monday, but buyers were determined to have a strong quarterly close and they got it.
By 9:30 AM EDT this morning, gold was nicely higher despite a good bid to the dollar. The quarterly skew was negative for metals yesterday and gold bounced in Asia where buyers are plentiful. However, US stocks were quiet in Asia because they were busy buying their own shares.
The American stock markets opened unchanged and plunged. Then shortly after the opening the White House said Iran was preparing to launch a missile strike (!) via BBG and other agencies. But by that time 9:37 AM, S&Ps were already down 40 handles headed for down 80 which was, if you were long, a bit suss.
By 2:30 PM experts on the ground were flatly dismissive of Iran’s intent. “Face saving measured response. Ample advance warning. America is on the scene.” By 3 PM dip-buyers had recovered more than 50% of the day's losses and gold settled down. However, gold is barely half a day’s range from new all-time highs as I write and other analysts from other sources were far more hawkish.
It is impossible to tell whether this is real or theater. With the election a few weeks away, this might be artful dog-wagging. No doubt tonight’s debate is going to give Governor Walz some easy pitches to hit. Another possibility is the hawks in Washington really do want a war. I sure hope not. Forty-three thousand of our sons and daughters are over there.
My sense of gold this evening is that gold is not war sensitive yet. If gold were $50 higher today on all-time highs with volume…S&Ps would be down 300. If gold were $100 higher? Katie Bar the Door, especially in this stock market. I think the price of gold is the best source of information in times when you can’t trust anything else, which is why gold is already trading at the highest price in history.
At any rate from my chair watching the board today, the news lagged the markets by minutes not seconds … so the sit-room was leakin’ bigly… immho.
On a lighter but somber note, instead of ‘my vibe’ ending the day I will add to the immense chorus of respect for the life and passing of Pete Rose.
I am a New Yorker and a Yankee fan. When I was kid, I lived I Pasadena California for nine months of the year with my mother and spent summers in New York with my dad. The Dodgers were never forgiven by me or any New Yorkers for moving to LA, ever… even Yankee fans, even today. So, I hated them for being the Brooklyn Dodgers before they left and double for moving to my town in California.
This is me in my Redlegs uniform (little league) the year Pete Rose signed with Cincinnati. RIP sir.
Good luck in Asia!
JJ
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Never met him. I wish I did. But I watched a ton of games, especially when the Reds played the Dodgers bc they telvised the dodger games in LA. That's a riot, sir. My mom was fighter too. I guess they all are...Great story!
I'd vote for inducting Pete in the HOF posthumously and including an accurate and even handed description of the gambling issues in his bio. That's all part of his history and the game's history.