I don't know if people get it yet but here's my take. Iran has staged a coup of global proportions. Iran says that since there is a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon INCLUDING HEZBOLLAH they will open the strait and leave it open. BUT the implication is that if Israel starts murdering people in south Lebanon again OR if the USG takes inappropriate actions it will close. It's bloody genius. They WON. Let's see if it holds.
Trump via Truth today: “This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”
I have seen a few ardent Lenonese statements that Hezzbollah is not welcome in lebanon. Whether that is a majority view I don’t know but is being said in public in Lebanon.
I think…Trump’s tweet (noted above) put Israel and more importantly the Jewish lobby, hawks (Sen Graham etc) and zionists in DC and in Israel on notice. [“If you want to fight any more wars in the middle east you are on your own.”]
I think Trump pulls out of the ME theater in force, very soon. As of April 16, US troops have fully pulled out of Syria, handing over their last major base (Qasrak Air Base in Hasakah province, northeastern Syria) to Syrian the government.
NATO and Ukraine are next.
The Congress might have a say on a full withdrawal from NATO (legally unclear) but Trump can significantly shrink U.S. forces in Europe, creating a de facto reduction of commitments without formally withdrawing from the alliance. When the E-3 offered to help enforce the blockagd Trump said again…“You’re useless.” It is obvious to me the alliance served its purpose. Not anymore.
This “conflict” has been an expensive Israeli side show and Trump tried to take an off-ramp on March 3… again a few days later … again on March 20, again on March 31 …after that 2 or 3 deadlines … The US spent 30 billion dollars on precise munitions deliberately making every effort to preserve Iranian oil for the benefit of the Iranian people with incredibly low numbers of mortality. Finally he did the rational and least violent thing of all.. a blockade which opened the Strait.
Trump goes to China. Nothing meaning ful will happen until they meet, in my opinion.
I get it that people who hate Trump are cheering for an Iranian win. They may yet have it… but Trump will be long gone. The real battle yet to be joined is unfolding in America right now… the midterms.
As for Iran and China and the GCC and Europe… they need that oil in MENA and Russia. Trump has said this 100 times, “We don’t need it.”
Good grief, between the US and Canada we produce 20 mmbpd of crude oil every day (not including NGL liquids condensates etc) America has at least 2 centuries of natty at current consumption and… a partnership with Venezuela and XOM and CVX and the colossal US energy industry. Guyana, the north slope etc…Simple math tells the story, OPEC is dead “long live (the new) OPEC.”
I hope everyone can get over their entirely justified hatred of all past evils (no one is without guilt) and consider for the next few weeks and months the Iranian citizens who are going have to clean up after the failure of their previous regime. Iranians are after all just like us… the people.
Adding one last line... "do hard things today." Forgive and keep moving.
If you really want to understand Lebanon (far beyond the scope of a comment-at least an essay) you should review the plan of governance put into law by the occupying French which divides government into religious sects and assigns each a sect a role. Christians get the Presidency. Shiite Hezbollah is the de facto government of south Lebanon. They run the schools, the hospitals and they collect the garbage. They are the self defense forces. Read up on the 1975 civil war. MSM reporting on Lebanon is propaganda.
JJ: Are we getting too old for this kind of price action? I'm grateful for some modest gains over the past 6 weeks, but, man, l totally missed the big moves. I'm flat right now and will stay that way into the weekend. What could I do here?
I just wonder if Hegseth is going to get a shot at extracting the uranium?
The big airman rescue may have been an attempt at establishing a beachhead for that purpose? Didn’t go as planned, whatever the plan was.
Rescue worked, which is a huge win, and considering time on the ground, worthy of great praise. All those planes and personnel though .. next to Isfahan.
It’s highly speculative, of course, even more less likely to make sense .. but, we have a convergence of special forces . .. and to the Chief Warrior, it’s a prize he may find irresistible? 🤔
Strait not open.
Lebanon fighting.
Same same.
Unfortunately, it seems painting the tape going into a weekend, with propaganda at a minimum, seems de rigueur.
Well.. mortality is lower than 2 days of war in Ukraine after a total military expenditure equal to a year of war in Ukraine… so there is that credit to the warrior in chief… something few ever mention. 🤔 look at the bright side, sir… even fewer are dying now.
Different subject, and I’m always puzzled how you may not consider the crux of the war in Ukraine survival for them as a nation, which is the only similarity with Iran, except of course it’s the regime there, fighting for survival.
Ukraine and Iran have connections we could make all day long. So, dispensing with that, I’ll say this:
The Ukraine, the body count, the money, the whole enchilada, has nothing to do with the decisions that got U.S. Forces to where they are in the Gulf.
Any mention of Hegseth, was strictly as the Secretary of Offence.
The best of the bunch are assembling in the Gulf, for Team Red White & Blue. Not out of the question someone rolls the dice. Again.
Nothing more than that.
The markets last week were operating on the Alpha Centauri side of the Sigma Scale, seemed to me. You’ve had some very interesting commentary all along, on outliers of all sorts. Just one of countless reasons we all sidle up every day JJ.
I do not wish ill anywhere. With the Gulf, my welfare is ultimately riding on good outcomes.
The decision makers need to be questioned, as always.
I only ask to see if someone might shed light.
Since we’re here, on the subject of Hegseth, my very recently having discovered the extent of his religious zeal had to give pause, if for no other reason than the irony. A central criticism of the Iranian Regime is their Medieval Rigidity when it comes to Religion.
Trump decides.
Hegseth might sell him a plausible scenario.
After that, my only sentiment is, “Good Luck.”
We should both know it’s also a Crusade, at least in the mind of the head warrior.
* I have edited my original reply for tidienest and that stupid notion we have that it matters. Habits. Old dogs. You know.
I did not mess with anything I wrote, just trying to prune a few words between the ideas.
This a great forum. I am privilidged and humbled to be included.
Leslie I saw you posted about NGD and CDE. NGD was one of my 4 main gold miners that I have owned for years. CDE is not and never has been a possible investment, they have been worse than a shitco and Fleck calls them a “serial destroyer of capital.” CDE also bought a silver miner I owned recently as well, so I lost positions twice to them and I have sold about 80% of my CDE from NGD merger but kept the remainder and a slug of Jan 27 NGD calls because in later stage bull markets even the shitco,s can outperform. This could be a mistake for me and my CDE position is on a very short leash as I don’t trust management at all. Think of them as Trumpian like management. HL has been mentioned here often and has been slightly better than a shitco over the years but only tradeable as they had issues at acquired properties. HL traded 4-8 for years and finally broke out of the range last year. I own a some HL and a slug of calls expiring in Jan. I think they have a chance to do well as their properties are in best mining locales right now in USA and Canada. Good luck!
I am vaguely aware of CDE having somewhat of a spotty reputation. I haven’t got to the point of digging into their financials and operations, which usually reveals other details of course, mismanagement, bad decisions, etc.
Different story with NGD, where I’d been a shareholder for past two years or so, up to the proposed merger. I sold and moved on.
Mine location is key for me, as you alluded to as well.
Some excellent miners in tier 1 jurisdictions are now back to prices that make a second look inevitable.
For what it’s worth, I own currently ALK & IAU. Looking to get back into GFI, for me the most promising major. AEM is first class, as we know, along with AGI. Another on the shortlist is WDO. There’s plenty of other contenders, but those names sit atop my watchlist. I used Toronto symbols but for GFI.
It’s hard to believe NGD was under $1.00 3 years ago. AEM and AGI and WDO are my 3 largest stock positions by far as I have owned them for years. AEM and AGI best managed in the sector no question. I moved NGD cash into them and coal tin copper tungsten nickel miners and SKE as they have a nice silver property. I got a surprise fill on a low ball standing bid for WDO a couple weeks ago at $14.57. I am irresponsibly long Dome right now and Kiena needs to turn the corner or I could be hurt again. I have been hiding in precious metals for decades and it has been a volatile war getting here. My cost basis on these names or location as our author would say is very low and not on a modern day chart. Not advice and not doing victory laps as I also took the brunt of the drawdown the past few months that was more than my net worth 3 years ago. I bought LLY at 29 I think several years ago because it looked cheap and I sold it in the 50’s because I didn’t think it was cheap anymore. I didn’t know why I owned it anymore so it’s gone too soon. I know why I own metal/miners and I have paid the price getting here and have the battle scars and tax losses all used up. I am retiring in Sept and it looks like Johnny might come marching home. Cheers!
AEM just pulled off a tri fecta. They got Rupert from me but I didn’t own the other 2. Hoping to hold AEM long enough to cash some dividends but will need to see how the bull market plays out. The mid and junior mining ranks are thinning.
I'm suprised that Iran would agree to open the Strait while Trump is maintaining the blockade of Iranian cargos. The Strait being open is conditional on Israel stopping attacks on Hezzbollah. I wonder if Israel will be able to hold on for 10 days?
Personally I find my ouija board more reliable than astrology & technical analysis in the current market environment. 🤣
lol...
Well, don’t hog the board…let us all know what it’s saying ;)
I don't know if people get it yet but here's my take. Iran has staged a coup of global proportions. Iran says that since there is a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon INCLUDING HEZBOLLAH they will open the strait and leave it open. BUT the implication is that if Israel starts murdering people in south Lebanon again OR if the USG takes inappropriate actions it will close. It's bloody genius. They WON. Let's see if it holds.
Ty Yo mis… my take:
Trump via Truth today: “This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”
I have seen a few ardent Lenonese statements that Hezzbollah is not welcome in lebanon. Whether that is a majority view I don’t know but is being said in public in Lebanon.
I think…Trump’s tweet (noted above) put Israel and more importantly the Jewish lobby, hawks (Sen Graham etc) and zionists in DC and in Israel on notice. [“If you want to fight any more wars in the middle east you are on your own.”]
I think Trump pulls out of the ME theater in force, very soon. As of April 16, US troops have fully pulled out of Syria, handing over their last major base (Qasrak Air Base in Hasakah province, northeastern Syria) to Syrian the government.
NATO and Ukraine are next.
The Congress might have a say on a full withdrawal from NATO (legally unclear) but Trump can significantly shrink U.S. forces in Europe, creating a de facto reduction of commitments without formally withdrawing from the alliance. When the E-3 offered to help enforce the blockagd Trump said again…“You’re useless.” It is obvious to me the alliance served its purpose. Not anymore.
This “conflict” has been an expensive Israeli side show and Trump tried to take an off-ramp on March 3… again a few days later … again on March 20, again on March 31 …after that 2 or 3 deadlines … The US spent 30 billion dollars on precise munitions deliberately making every effort to preserve Iranian oil for the benefit of the Iranian people with incredibly low numbers of mortality. Finally he did the rational and least violent thing of all.. a blockade which opened the Strait.
Trump goes to China. Nothing meaning ful will happen until they meet, in my opinion.
I get it that people who hate Trump are cheering for an Iranian win. They may yet have it… but Trump will be long gone. The real battle yet to be joined is unfolding in America right now… the midterms.
As for Iran and China and the GCC and Europe… they need that oil in MENA and Russia. Trump has said this 100 times, “We don’t need it.”
Good grief, between the US and Canada we produce 20 mmbpd of crude oil every day (not including NGL liquids condensates etc) America has at least 2 centuries of natty at current consumption and… a partnership with Venezuela and XOM and CVX and the colossal US energy industry. Guyana, the north slope etc…Simple math tells the story, OPEC is dead “long live (the new) OPEC.”
I hope everyone can get over their entirely justified hatred of all past evils (no one is without guilt) and consider for the next few weeks and months the Iranian citizens who are going have to clean up after the failure of their previous regime. Iranians are after all just like us… the people.
Adding one last line... "do hard things today." Forgive and keep moving.
If you really want to understand Lebanon (far beyond the scope of a comment-at least an essay) you should review the plan of governance put into law by the occupying French which divides government into religious sects and assigns each a sect a role. Christians get the Presidency. Shiite Hezbollah is the de facto government of south Lebanon. They run the schools, the hospitals and they collect the garbage. They are the self defense forces. Read up on the 1975 civil war. MSM reporting on Lebanon is propaganda.
We’re not staying and we’re not going back… midterms…
‘if Israel starts murdering people in south Lebanon again’
LOL ‘if’??? Wtf!!! More like ‘when’ sadly.
JJ: Are we getting too old for this kind of price action? I'm grateful for some modest gains over the past 6 weeks, but, man, l totally missed the big moves. I'm flat right now and will stay that way into the weekend. What could I do here?
Hey Victor.. just get the ball over the net.
I understand, JJ, but that ball is moving awful fast.
I just wonder if Hegseth is going to get a shot at extracting the uranium?
The big airman rescue may have been an attempt at establishing a beachhead for that purpose? Didn’t go as planned, whatever the plan was.
Rescue worked, which is a huge win, and considering time on the ground, worthy of great praise. All those planes and personnel though .. next to Isfahan.
It’s highly speculative, of course, even more less likely to make sense .. but, we have a convergence of special forces . .. and to the Chief Warrior, it’s a prize he may find irresistible? 🤔
Strait not open.
Lebanon fighting.
Same same.
Unfortunately, it seems painting the tape going into a weekend, with propaganda at a minimum, seems de rigueur.
Well.. mortality is lower than 2 days of war in Ukraine after a total military expenditure equal to a year of war in Ukraine… so there is that credit to the warrior in chief… something few ever mention. 🤔 look at the bright side, sir… even fewer are dying now.
Let’s hope they figure it out soon.
Different subject, and I’m always puzzled how you may not consider the crux of the war in Ukraine survival for them as a nation, which is the only similarity with Iran, except of course it’s the regime there, fighting for survival.
Ukraine and Iran have connections we could make all day long. So, dispensing with that, I’ll say this:
The Ukraine, the body count, the money, the whole enchilada, has nothing to do with the decisions that got U.S. Forces to where they are in the Gulf.
Any mention of Hegseth, was strictly as the Secretary of Offence.
The best of the bunch are assembling in the Gulf, for Team Red White & Blue. Not out of the question someone rolls the dice. Again.
Nothing more than that.
The markets last week were operating on the Alpha Centauri side of the Sigma Scale, seemed to me. You’ve had some very interesting commentary all along, on outliers of all sorts. Just one of countless reasons we all sidle up every day JJ.
I do not wish ill anywhere. With the Gulf, my welfare is ultimately riding on good outcomes.
The decision makers need to be questioned, as always.
I only ask to see if someone might shed light.
Since we’re here, on the subject of Hegseth, my very recently having discovered the extent of his religious zeal had to give pause, if for no other reason than the irony. A central criticism of the Iranian Regime is their Medieval Rigidity when it comes to Religion.
Trump decides.
Hegseth might sell him a plausible scenario.
After that, my only sentiment is, “Good Luck.”
We should both know it’s also a Crusade, at least in the mind of the head warrior.
* I have edited my original reply for tidienest and that stupid notion we have that it matters. Habits. Old dogs. You know.
I did not mess with anything I wrote, just trying to prune a few words between the ideas.
This a great forum. I am privilidged and humbled to be included.
ty sir...an enjoyable exchange of ideas as always.
Leslie I saw you posted about NGD and CDE. NGD was one of my 4 main gold miners that I have owned for years. CDE is not and never has been a possible investment, they have been worse than a shitco and Fleck calls them a “serial destroyer of capital.” CDE also bought a silver miner I owned recently as well, so I lost positions twice to them and I have sold about 80% of my CDE from NGD merger but kept the remainder and a slug of Jan 27 NGD calls because in later stage bull markets even the shitco,s can outperform. This could be a mistake for me and my CDE position is on a very short leash as I don’t trust management at all. Think of them as Trumpian like management. HL has been mentioned here often and has been slightly better than a shitco over the years but only tradeable as they had issues at acquired properties. HL traded 4-8 for years and finally broke out of the range last year. I own a some HL and a slug of calls expiring in Jan. I think they have a chance to do well as their properties are in best mining locales right now in USA and Canada. Good luck!
Thank you for sharing your thoughts on CDE.
I am vaguely aware of CDE having somewhat of a spotty reputation. I haven’t got to the point of digging into their financials and operations, which usually reveals other details of course, mismanagement, bad decisions, etc.
Different story with NGD, where I’d been a shareholder for past two years or so, up to the proposed merger. I sold and moved on.
Mine location is key for me, as you alluded to as well.
Some excellent miners in tier 1 jurisdictions are now back to prices that make a second look inevitable.
For what it’s worth, I own currently ALK & IAU. Looking to get back into GFI, for me the most promising major. AEM is first class, as we know, along with AGI. Another on the shortlist is WDO. There’s plenty of other contenders, but those names sit atop my watchlist. I used Toronto symbols but for GFI.
All the best.
It’s hard to believe NGD was under $1.00 3 years ago. AEM and AGI and WDO are my 3 largest stock positions by far as I have owned them for years. AEM and AGI best managed in the sector no question. I moved NGD cash into them and coal tin copper tungsten nickel miners and SKE as they have a nice silver property. I got a surprise fill on a low ball standing bid for WDO a couple weeks ago at $14.57. I am irresponsibly long Dome right now and Kiena needs to turn the corner or I could be hurt again. I have been hiding in precious metals for decades and it has been a volatile war getting here. My cost basis on these names or location as our author would say is very low and not on a modern day chart. Not advice and not doing victory laps as I also took the brunt of the drawdown the past few months that was more than my net worth 3 years ago. I bought LLY at 29 I think several years ago because it looked cheap and I sold it in the 50’s because I didn’t think it was cheap anymore. I didn’t know why I owned it anymore so it’s gone too soon. I know why I own metal/miners and I have paid the price getting here and have the battle scars and tax losses all used up. I am retiring in Sept and it looks like Johnny might come marching home. Cheers!
You have a good eye for
my miners. 🧐
We share similar stories,
scars included. 🥂
OMGosh!
Just noticed I wrote
“my miners”?! 😬
. .. by mistake.
AEM just pulled off a tri fecta. They got Rupert from me but I didn’t own the other 2. Hoping to hold AEM long enough to cash some dividends but will need to see how the bull market plays out. The mid and junior mining ranks are thinning.
Ever thus.
Still Cherries.
U Kno. 🍒
Too fantastical to be believed
Statements to reporter Kellie Meyer
https://x.com/KellieMeyerNews/status/2045149765789511923
Statements to reporter Weijia Jiang
https://x.com/weijia/status/2045209241623929168
General Ibrahim Dhu al-Fiqar
https://x.com/Ibrahim_alFiqar/status/2045162356569968719
The Strait today:
Just scroll through:
https://x.com/mercoglianos
Personally I'll be taking some of my Gold profits and rotating into oil. I don't hear no fat lady warming up in the wings.
I'm suprised that Iran would agree to open the Strait while Trump is maintaining the blockade of Iranian cargos. The Strait being open is conditional on Israel stopping attacks on Hezzbollah. I wonder if Israel will be able to hold on for 10 days?