braveheart

market vibes

August 28… )

"We shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for the moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, will carry on the struggle until, in God's good time, the New World with all its power and might steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the Old." Winston Churchill

Since August 21st, gold has crept higher in baby steps. Very light volume, as usual, and a modest increase in open interest. We are still in the range.

However, much of the rally occurred after the Comex pit close, indicating Asia is the marginal buyer

The rally in silver is more of a stock market thing, driven by Powell and the SLV opening yesterday. As always, be careful on Fridays.

Copper … "sold out" doesn’t quite say it. It may not go up because China is the world’s largest consumer of it, and higher copper prices might not suit them, but it takes bad length to go down

Platinum made its low for the month on August 1st. For the last four weeks, narrow horizontal activity kept prices in a low-volume range as futures added 6,000 lots of open interest. New monthly highs (or lows) are usually a sign of long-timeframe range extension.

The S&P 500 is not going down. In this form, rising lows with a flat level of resistance at 6,505.000, buyers are gradually getting more aggressive on dips and usually take out the highs as sellers at the level are exhausted. Light volume is the new normal. In fact, it doesn’t have much technical weight because there are so few humans trading stocks. There’s no drama—just coded rules.

Yesterday, news items and Administration commentary sent a message to the oil markets, and front spreads rallied. Navarro called Ukraine “Modi’s war,” which is absurd and insulting. Bessent accused Europe of outright hypocrisy for buying refined products from India.

Oil markets read these developments as hawkish. Concurrently, Zelenskyy said “security guarantees” will be in place imminently for a lasting peace … but Russia doesn’t want peace. Russia wants access to the Crimean penninsula. Both sides continue to kill each other.

It’s almost impossible to guess which way the wind blows now. At any rate, the front of the curve is nibbling at longs.

For instance, November/December doubled in four sessions from .24 to .47.

Bitcoin looks like it’s making a low around $110,000/$112,000. Any trade with a stop is a good trade.

my vibe

Everything feels bid…not frothy, just bid. The dollar is a little weaker. The probability that any new length at these levels will be an easy trade is low, but it’s also pretty hard to lose money in these markets unless you get stubborn.

There is quite a bit of good news, depending on what you think is good. One of the crazy things about 2025 is that good is bad for millions of people, depending on your politics. But that’s life in a free country. Some of us are long America, and others are short, which I think is okay from a philosophical perspective but financially stupid.

Braveheart

Great baseball this year. Even the Jays are in it.

Good luck today…

JJ

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