a time to every purpose

market vibes

March 18…)

“Speak softly and carry a big stick.” Theodore Roosevelt 1900

In the news

The Houthis are under attack, at last. Bessent describes maximum Iranian sanctions taking Iranian exports to zero. Oil has a bid on this

Zelensky agreed to a cease fire without conditions primarily because Trump won’t give him any more money and everyone knows Europe is utterly and completely flat broke. Cross your fingers.

The astronauts are expected to touch down this evening, weather permitting. Check it out here.

Treasury Secretary Bessent hired two Hunter Biden IRS whistleblowers in senior positions to investigate the IRS with DOGE (Maria, Fox News). he said, “No matter who you are, the IRS will behave fairly and we are going to make sure that happens.” I think he means it.

8:30 housing data came in hot. Customs data came in hot.

In the markets

Gold at all-time highs again on the lowest Comex volume yesterday since New Year’s Eve 2024. I seem to be quoting that metric regularly in other markets as well. My take on the behavior of gold here is a very small marginal imbalance of demand is repricing a 20 trillion market cap with a few ounces every day because no one has enough of it to sell and anyone who does have it wants to keep it.

I have been rattling the cage about Fort Knox and the BoE for weeks because those two institutions claim to hold 420 million ounces in custody but won't lend it to a starving market. Therefore, the only remedy is the public auction.

Silver is in its usual anesthetic pre SLV expiration coma. Gold is dragging it higher into some interesting gamma and creation stress if SLV gets over $31. My sense is all the delta is in this time.

Stocks aren’t going anywhere until 2:30 tomorrow. The highest volume of the year produced a limp rally and a balanced result yesterday. Stocks are not pricing a cut but they’ll take one if they can get it. They are pricing a detox, better said kicking the Mags cold turkey and picking through the cleanest dirty shirts in the Trump 45 economy.

The Yen continues to auction lower as fundamentals point to higher interest rates in Japan. The Euro is steady on the highs keeping pressure on DXY.

Oil prices are higher on Iranian tensions. I don’t see any outcome where the US will lose this standoff with the Iranians. Putin offered to help broker a deal. A negotiating rally seems likely as the Ukrainian and Iranian situations overlap…. I plan to sell it.

Copper is a little higher this morning. Open Iinterest finally went up yesterday + 6000. Good to know where the new longs and shorts came in. The metals sector is self-reinforcing. I plan to go with it.

My vibe

There are a lot of good things happening in the world. It may not look like it but every day gets a little better. Just think where we were a year ago… crazytown, imo. I could do a checkdown of how bad things were but I’ll just say "For every season there is a time" Ecclesiastes 3:1-8.

We got through the Cuban Missile crisis and this is not even close to that. This is a time for peace, turn turn. When everyone wants it, the deals will get done. I plan to do some gardening today. And leave some offers above the markets jic things go up.

A short note today.

Best 2 minutes of my day … so far

JJ

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