you can't go back
market vibes
The gush of “I told you so” and discontent on social media this morning is evenly divided between Dr. Fauci and the New Federal Reserve. Most of the Fauci haters are amplifying their creds and the press pundits are quacking about Warsh for what he hasn’t said and didn’t do.
Not much ink has been spilled on the stock market; an ocean of it on the long bond. The 2 year did not move yesterday and FF is the same today as it was last year. But as Mr. Dylan said in the early 60s… “People have a lot of forks and knives and they gotta cut something.”
Oil is ignored because no one has a position in oil. Gold didn’t go down yesterday which to most of us is up. The dollar is sharply lower on a viscious rip higher in Yen. The BOE held steady today, the ECB held steady last week. The BOJ meets today with a decision tomorrow.
in the news
The old Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation Core PCE, rose 0.13% in June, the mildest month-over-month increase since March 2025 (a 1.6% annualized rate). Personal income fell, personal spending fell, advance GDP fell and initial claims were higher.
The US and IRGC resumed the war. Oil is unchanged. Microsoft rallied 8% in early trading after its Azure cloud business topped $100 billion in revenue for the first time. Apple and Amazon tonight.
in the markets
Stocks are off to a good start. NDX is trading well above yesterday’s highs. A good close and good reports from Apple and Amazon tonight and the FOMC will be forgotten. It already is which is almost game over for Warsh. More on that in the vibe.
Technically, NDX could be considered to be oversold in the context of a post war range (or decelerating war). We’ll see how the market develops tomorrow and next week. Long time frame range extension down in DXY did a lot of damage that will take time to repair.
The DOW made new Q-3 and monthly lowsbut the news from MSFT has steadied the entire stock market.
S&Ps are still holding their June 11, 3-day up wiggle lows (encircled).
