you can go your own way

market vibes

November 12 …)

“It takes a wise man to discover a wise man.” Diogenes

In the news

The drumbeat calling AUM back to natty grows louder by the day. Germany entered November with storage levels about 5 billion cubic meters lower than a year earlier, 75% full instead of the 98% reading at the same point in 2024 (via BBG). As of November 7, 2025, UK gas storage was approximately 26% lower than year-ago levels (myenergyconsultants.co.uk). One of these days Alice…

In the stock market…A good deal of ink was devoted to SoftBank’s liquidation of NVIDIA yesterday, as if they need to explain it. There’s enough curiosity about chip depreciation in the sector, worker obsolescence, and spooky valuations to call “bank” on a +$5.8 billion trade. At any rate, SoftBank’s shares fell 10%, NVIDIA’s fell 3%; comical activity, actually. If the markets punish both sellers and buyers for a little profit taking, no one has a clue what the stock is worth.

Bloomberg, says stocks offer investors “less than zero” returns on a risk-adjusted basis yesterday. The S&P 500 earnings yield (3.24% as of November 10, 2025) minus the 10-year Treasury yield (around 4.1%) = -0.86%, which is usually a metric preceding tops. FWIW, we’ve been here since the Yen carry kerfuffle in August 2024 but still good to know.

In other news, a smattering of murders and senseless crimes littered the nation overnight. Mamdani is waving adieu to the metro middle class. The wealthy don’t seem too worried. Canada offered proof of life as only they can do.

In the markets

Silver at the highs, gold not so much, copper and PGMs? Not at all. Oil and yen in the ditch, and bitcoin can’t or won’t climb out of it. The trade you hate makes you money… or does it? Santa won’t help you! Coal is in vogue again!