you can always get back in
market vibes
September 3…)
"A single lie discovered is enough to create doubt in every truth expressed." Anonymous misattribution to Bram Stoker’s “Dracula”
Algo sensitive data on tap today: JOLTS at 8:30 pretty much a dead number considering NFP is due on Friday. Job openings haven’t moved in a year. Job quits have been falling in line with the dimming labor outlook.
The consensus forecast for Friday’s jobs report is +75k vs 73k last month and AHE +.3% vs .3% MOM and +3.9% vs 3.7% YOY. ADP tomorrow expecting +70k. (interesting chart below via Zaccardi on X… 1991/2001/2009/2020/ ?)
In the news, nothing is more real than a live screenshot of a cigarette drug boat getting droned. Russia’s Gazprom and China inked a long-overdue natty pipeline deal… so much for sanctions. OPEC is considering an increase in production. There is a suicide narrative developing in AI. There might be a time when a minimum age enters the debate.
In the markets
December Gold rallied through its previous contract highs of $3,585.80 around 11:00 AM yesterday and steadied above $3,600.00 in Asia overnight
(chart below hourly data).
The best case for longs is a brisk acceleration up, leaving the five-month range behind like a two-stage rocket leaving the earth’s gravity. However, there is a fairly clear void between $3,530 and $3,586 where gold can develop horizontally and, in its own good time, auction higher.
If prices accept and develop under $3,530 after trading above $3,600, that would be a negative red flag, and the old POC could suck it back down to $3,385. Preliminary OI rose 16k lots yesterday on high volume. Gold is not crowded, which is very rare for a market at all-time highs.
(December gold daily data)
Next up: no love is good for silver and platinum, copper starts to climb, oil slides on Opec, stocks just because, and a glimmer of hope in bitcoin… and you can always get back in… in the vibe!
