April 9…)
“Knowledge will give you power, but character respect.” Bruce Lee
In the news
Bloomberg 7:02 AM EDT: China raises tariffs on US goods to 84%. Foreshadowing the mood perhaps of the FOMC, ECB's Holzman says, "I don't see a reason for a rate cut now."
In an April 8th note, Goldman noted that investors were putting money to work in the market (Bloomberg). Buffett's annual meeting in Omaha is slated for May 3 this year. The oracle has been holding a record amount of cash for almost two years, clearly saying with action what could not be said more emphatically with words. “Stocks are too expensive.” Perhaps GS is intimating Buffett or others like him are beginning to nibble?
After watching a selection of reports on cable news last night, including Fox, the markets’ disarry has become entirely political. On the other hand, Bessent's assurances that these disagreements will be resolved add a confident voice to the usual narratives. "There is nothing wrong with systemic deleveraging," he said this morning on Fox with Maria. He has a following.
If there is not blood in the streets this morning, there are some some ugly fat lips and colorful bruises. “This is nothing like 2008.” Jamie Dimon.
In the markets
China's display of displeasure with Trump's tariff policies could not be more apparent than this chart of CBOT long bonds in daily data. It reminds me of the plethora of clips on X a few months ago of unhappy customers at a fast food restaurant beating employees and wrecking the facility.
Getting back to Bessent. "If China sells Treasuries, they have to buy something else. If they sell dollars, they strengthen the Yuan and they are weakening their currency."
So let's take a look at gold.
The Shanghai gold premium to London fell to a modest $26.80 / toz from Friday’s $110.00.
I overslept and there’s a few interesting developments I want get out so let’s get right to it.
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