weekend wrap

February 7…)

“Life has got a habit of not standing hitched. You got to ride it like you find it. You got to change with it. If a day goes by that don't change some of your old notions for new ones, that is just about like trying to milk a dead cow.” Woody Guthrie

in the markets today

UE fell a tick to 4% from 4.1% in December. A dovish miss in jobs was wiped away by an upward revision to 307K, which seemed so bizarre. Could America produce 50% fewer jobs in January as the unemployment rate fell in the same period?

Around 10:30, Goolsbee described his view as, “we’re settling in something like full employment.” The stock market didn’t like that.

At any rate, let’s keep going. Average hourly earnings were a peppery .5% vs .3% expected, and YoY was equally piquant, 4.1% vs 3.8% expected. There is a word for this. It begins with stag and ends with flation.

stocks

Volume in S&Ps matched volume in the first hour, which is rare, as prices slid in protest to the Goolsbee dirt sandwich.

The bond market was unmollified by Goolsbee’s comments after its previous plunge at 8:30. It had nothing left to heave. I don’t think the markets are interested in the Fed now. Talk is cheap, too cheap to trade on.

usd/fx

Euro yen cratered, no surprise there. I think that little dog needs to go outside. Meaning, for those readers who don’t appreciate my sense of snark, yen is starting to find its way higher. Considering the path of rates, the euro carries might chafe.

silver

There was an SLV option expiration today with about 3 million shares of 29 calls expiring. $32.22 = $28.95 SLV. Comex march silver inhourly data below…Any questions?

Fwiw I have been warning Bitcoin ETF investors that their dreams of crypto wealth will turn into (what appears to be) the regular suppression of silver prices in service of SLV expiries. IBIT and SLV serve the same owner.

copper

Dr. Copper was completely indifferent to the employment report and the recent rally in fixed income. Chalk this up to another reliable indicator going to its grave in a new era of maximum retro. I’m not sure where we are going. I’ll let you know when we leave. One thing is certain, the past is so far behind me I can barely remember it.

Don’t rub your eye and blink, folks. Copper is trading at $4.60/pound. And silver, being the precious byproduct of it, is too much trouble to refine, so the miners just throw it away. No joke.

Bitcoin…

has all but stopped trading. OI is trading flat in the day structure, and volume is so low the only thing happening is chronic option decay. I think that is deliberate but I could be wrong. A frothy market can stay the same price for a year; happen all the time. lol.. it’s a pump and slump. Ethereum turned lower in the afternoon.

My vibe.

This rally in gold has left a huge void of investors behind it, including me. It has the attention of the world, not only because it’s making record highs daily, but also because a thoughtful and educated public in North America and Europe is beginning to realize how badly they have been misinformed by the very people for whom they have so loyally forgone their treasure and their liberties.

It is impossible to comment on the markets we trade and ignore Trump so I’ll ask your indulgence. These days will be recorded in history for as long as men are able to read. It is important for us to pay careful attention to every hour and remember the generations that follow us will judge us. In that context, the stock market has very little importance, I think, and the gold market may speak with a far louder voice.

It was comical to see the diminutive octogenarian Maxine Waters ranting, “Let me in!” at guards in front of the Department of Education while Musk and co. were inside detailing a plot to euthanize it.

Chess.

life goes on

Happy Friday!

JJ

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