Various thoughts
Alyosha745
April 19...)
In the news
Jim Bianco noted an anomaly on X yesterday. "[Initial] claims have been unchanged at 212k for 5 of the last 6 periods", which is... in his opinion, a statistical impossibility. He says, "The US is a $28 trillion economy. It has 160 million workers. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs, with 50 state rules, hundreds of offices, and 50 websites to file. Weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week."
The word that comes to my mind is "Super-users" and the recent collapse of confidence in the BLS employment data. You decide.
In other news
Goldman's John Waldren said this about the treasury market yesterday: "The thing that I worry about is the confluence of a political crisis and a lot of leverage in the Treasury system.” Leverage meaning hypothecation and mark- to-market reserves, I think. In December JPM, MS, BAC and other major banks stridently protested a proposed increase in capital requirements before congress, meaning a regulatory margin call. So far, the idea has fizzled, but T debt is nearly 2 trillion higher. The silver institute says the supply/demand deficit will be the second highest on record at 215 mm toz in 2024.
In the markets
Gold has reverted to its recent desultory behavior following spikes and rejections since December 4. However, the patterns of spikes and ranges are becoming more and more compressed. Its lethargy seems almost reptilian; digesting gains in low volume ranges and declining OI until it gets hungry again. Although positioning is still subdued in longer time frames... the average entry price (both long and short) for aggregate OI is creeping higher.
The trend in copper remains solidly in force, accelerating higher on rising OI. Although volume is decelerating to more orderly levels, the auction for sellers is humming along nicely.
Technical development in the long bond is eerily similar to copper. Rising OI and declining volume with a trend solidly in force.
In other markets
Stocks made new lows overnight. Record high CTA length seems unfazed by a 6.9% high to low decline...so far. Usually when CTAs are active, it's been my observation that they tend to execute a chunk on the opening and twap steadily though the session. If the position is as big as it's cracked up to be, it'll be impossible to hide, imo. In oil, Iran declined to counter Israel's latest measured response. Disappointing new home sales hammered lumber prices again. The Yen can't hold a rally... And cocoa gapped higher to another ATH this morning. "Ah the power of cheese."
My vibe
"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on." FDR
One more (amazing) thing...
https://twitter.com/Hana_b30/status/1781282638155685907
Happy Friday and good luck today
Entirely my thoughts written for friends and sent to friends
Charts and data CQG and Bloomy