metals, oil and everything else
Alyosha745
April 22...)
Weekend items
It is possible we will have a 3rd speaker of the house in fewer than 8 months. ...Let that sink in.
If you trade stocks, the SEC is watching you. The quondam protector of citizen investors is now the 19th intel agency of the DC blob; "collecting] mass amounts of personally identifiable data by forcing brokers, exchanges, clearing agencies and alternative trading systems to capture and send detailed information on every investor’s trades in U.S. markets to a centralized database called the “Consolidated Audit Trail,” or CAT” program," (source NY Post). According to a suit filed by the New Civil Liberties Alliance, they're plugged into YOUR servers. CAT has been operating since 2016 with bi-partisan support and an undisclosed budget of billions. No wonder so many members of the government are trading.
The mags and so forth
After five consecutive days of liquidation and a trainwreck of technical damage, there is no sign that the bottom is nigh. Nvidia and Netflix suffered the kind of rare chart damage it usually takes weeks (or months) to repair. By the close on Friday, Elon Musk was the 4th richest man in the world. A serious sell-off increases the odds that Powell will cut, I think.
Si hoc ergo quod (if this then that)....
If the debt markets keep hiking rates, liquidity imbalances will get worse, especially in stocks. Therefore, bonds may be mispriced. Actually, a stock bust would be heaven sent for Yellen to fund the deficit and Powell to save us with a cut.
CBOT June 30-year continuous daily data
The dollar may be mispricing (mispricing) in bonds. DXY has consistently played the reluctant bull and a trip to the range bottom might be desirable.
The Yen may be mispricing the dollar mispricing in Bonds.
Comex gold weekly data... mispriced? I wouldn't sell this chart with your money, yet.
Silver and gold ETF selling accelerated last week.
Spec length in gold is similarly modest according to Friday's latest COT report.
Silver spec length needs to rise 50% to equal the 2019 high. To break the record of 98k, spec length needs to rise 140%.
In other markets the fever seems to have broken. Robots are selling PGMs short. Crude is too messy to figure out and cracks won't sing in the OPEC choir. Softs are an oxymoron where dinosaurs roam and tourists are food. However, copper is flying... and like gold and silver COT spec length is little more than 50% of its old highs. China.
My vibe
In markets, safety is found where no one dares to be or "the greatest risk is not taking one." Trouble lurks where everyone wants to leave, or money goes where it is well treated. I would restate that last admonition; money knows where it's well treated.
Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg
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