truth day

market vibes

July 22…)

"To thine own self be true." Hamlet

In the news

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -10 this morning. Powell and the FOMC consistently say, “The economy is in a good place,” As if to say, “We don’t need to cut rates.” However, their own indexes, created and tracked by economists employed by the Fed, have been under zero and declining for years.

Oil is lower because tariff woes will suppress fuel demand, according to Reuters. I thought new EU Tariffs were going to shut in Russian oil. At any rate, distillate cracks are in a vertical bull market in America. Powell gives welcoming remarks at a regulatory conference at 8:30 AM EDT.

Coke had a nice Q2 beat: .87 vs .83. Not that anyone cares. You can’t drink AI… yet.

In the markets

BOE’s Baily on the wires this morning saying “The Most crowded trade in the market is short dollars.

Economists are forecasting lower rates for the entire planet in 2025, incuding the US except for Japan (higher) and Brazil (unchanged). JGBs and Gilts are struggling with steepening. The problem, some say, is actually run hot inflation in Japan upsetting the Yen Carry in the UK.

The Yen is at the bottom of a multi-week downtrend. Although no one seems concerned about Yen strength, Japan is the only nation on Earth raising rates and expected to keep hiking. If Powell does cut, what will the Yen do? Asking for a friend.

Catching up next with metals, stocks and bitcoin, and a few F-bombs in the vibe. Here we go Tueday…