trouble comin'
market vibes
October 11…)
“Never sell a quiet market short… Be short.” Pit adage
In the news:
PPI today 2.6% vs 2.4%
A full court international press is actively cajoling and threatening Israel with dire consequences if Israel attacks Iran’s oil fields, thus revealing in my opinion, the true origin of the growing global political schism now siding with Iran and waning support for Israel in the US congress; oil. Apparently, Iran’s super saturation of the Iron Dome was far more effective than earlier reports implied. …More on this with charts and comments discussing oil’s technical position further down in this morning’s note.
North Korea deployed soldiers to help Russian forces in Ukraine, according to Al Jazzera, and other sources. The UK military leadership is considering sending troops to Ukraine to assist in training, according to The Times, an ironic juxtaposition with Nihon Hidankyo, a Japanese group of atomic bomb survivors winning the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo this morning.
In financial news:
Blackrock’s AUM rose to $11.48T, vs an estimate of $11.19T equaling between 17% and 20% of all US AUM including REITs, according to AI searches.
In the markets
Benign trading in gold greets an ordinary Friday morning. Prices closed on their highs at 5 PM yesterday with an increase of10 k lots (1 mm toz) open interest on the Comex.
In silver, volume and OI declined from low to very low levels yesterday as prices continue to develop horizontally above $30/ toz. I selected a chart in weekly data this morning to highlight just how low and divergent volume and OI in silver futures has become.
One could correctly deduce the entirety of the rally since mid-May has been short covering. The question is how short is the silver market now? Is the short filled? Usually, a market that clings to its highs implies unfilled buying below.
In oil, bonds and stocks trouble is brewing
