tricky arithmetic
market vibes
August 6…)
Who’s Fabio?
Data releases today are limited to national mortgage rates and applications. The DOE will report petroleum industry data at 10:30 AM EDT.
Yesterday, the API reported US Crude Oil Inventories: Decreased by 4.2 million barrels (forecast: -1.8 million barrels). Cushing Inventories: Increased by 1.7 million barrels for a net draw of 2.5 million barrels.
Gasoline Inventories: Decreased by 0.9 million barrels. Distillate Inventories: Increased by 1.6 million barrels for a net increase of 0.7 million barrels of product inventories. The net draw of all petroleum fluids was 1.8 million barrels.
In the news
An August 8 deadline on Russia and an August 12 deadline on China are rallying oil. Witcoff arrived in Moscow yesterday in a last-ditch effort to avert a schism with India. Sources say Putin may offer a pause in air strikes, but it’s highly unlikely he will agree to a truce.
The irony of these disputations is stunning. Europe is still one of the largest buyers of Russian energy! Trump believes the path to peace is lower oil prices, yet everything he does raises the price of oil. India’s trade with the US is just 2% of GDP and they do not arb the Russian discount. They export refined fuels.
In lesser news, Drugs come under the all-seeing eye of Trumpian tariffs today with up to 250% levies on drug imports. JPM and BofA went to the woodshed yesterday for de-banking Republicans. Jamie Dimon said, “Apalling! The first I’ve heard of it. Let me help you fix that.”
About 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 2025 earnings as of Tuesday evening. If I had to pick a single word to describe them, robust would suit.
In the markets
Higher oil and mixed metals, stock indexes are mixed. Earnings have been robust; they won’t get better. The tariff narratives are getting old. A rate cut is tardy but imminent. The BLS is getting a facelift. And a new Fed Chair will be the first “Shadow Chair” in history. Is that good? Let’s find out.
