March 16/17… )
Asset managers looking at gold …
In weekend news
Trump ordered “unrelenting” strikes on Houthis this weekend. GS lowered its oil price forecast $5/barrel to $65 to $80 and oil demand growth this year by 18% to 900,000 barrels a day… higher tariffs and recession yada yada. No change in rates at the FOMC is hawkish according to surveys. It’s pretty clear from these dots who thinks what…
In the markets
In honor of a lively St Patrick’s Day, I am writing tomorrow’s morning note tonight and leading off with stocks…
This weekly chart of NDX futures has been noted on X and elsewhere this weekend with a violated T line off the Jan 22 lows cob Friday, March 14. Weekly data is roll adjusted, so the location of the line is imperfect, but it gives a good sense of a broken trend and a confirmed break if prices trade below last week’s low of 19139.25.
It is easy and forgivable to become habituated to high volume lows and buy them. Buy the dip. It has worked so well for so long. However, high volume can be a crowded exit for many reasons. My point is high volume dips have often implied the wrong people getting out for the wrong reasons. Not the right people getting out and not coming back which I think is happening now.
Many of these “right people” have left long ago, pick a name, pick a price. Bezos was selling AMZN in size before the FAANGs became FAAMGs became Mag 7s. Buffett’s measure of value is a market cap at or below 120% of GDP, some 60 handles lower than here. The last time I looked, the beer and champagne are still running in the streets. Blood, not yet by a very long mile.
Next up more technical depth in stocks and a few vibes and TINA ideas in gold.
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