three words
market vibes
April 11…)
“I am Spartacus.”
PPI this morning…BLS data has been tame. U Mich has been anything but.
In the news
China scoffs. Hikes tariffs to 125%. Says it will disregard all further tariffs from the US henceforth. Steve Witkoff in Moscow today, ostensibly for peace talks, but the game board has shifted from détente to trade. Zelenskyy is a bit player now, and Russia may have a pivotal role in more ways than one. It would seem Putin’s stock has gone up, in my opinion.
Scott Bessent’s stock has rallied as well. BBG refers to him as “the man of the hour.” Druckenmiller recently lauded his experience and calm demeanor. In brief, Bessent has become a trusted voice of reason overnight. Apart from his duties funding trillions of maturing debt, he’s in charge of negotiating the implementation of tariffs with 90+ countries in 90 days.
In financial news, the Bank of America joins Citi and others with a negative view on stocks.
In the markets
The Yen is breaking higher (14% of DXY). EUR/USD (57% of DXY) is even stronger. The market is speaking.
Despite China’s move on Tuesday to weaken the Yuan, someone is selling the dollar, hard. Could the low in CNH be a Chinese feint? Food for thought. A weak dollar might hurt us more than a weak Yuan. It probably does considering our debt. Hard to pick a winner there. Gold knows.
The Relic is making all-time highs in a vertical 3-day up auction of higher highs and higher lows (next chart). There is no relevant technical analysis at this stage. Tony Greer likes to call it “Blue Sky.” Copy that, Sir.
Loss of trust is a key element in big bull moves in gold. When the dollar is palpably weak, and the misery index is truly miserable, gold gets toppy. We are not there. We’re still in denial, or so says the COTs.
technically, the collection of Comex data would fit better in a downtrend… go figure.
COT net long positioning in futures was at year-over-year lows last Friday, and positioning on the Comex is as uncrowded a bull market as I have ever seen in a lifetime of trading gold.
Moving along… stocks and bonds and oil, observations on location and something quite exceptional about gold in the vibe. It’s almost Friday…here we go.
