this too shall pass
market vibes
April 7…)
For what it’s worth the board is not saying, “End of the world.” It’s actually not saying anything. Moreover, there are no margin calls, no gushing flows and no panic. Volumes are light, open interest in futures is extremely low in risk assets and stock indexes and extremely high in Treasury bonds, fixed income ETF options and fixed income ETF short interest as a % of float.
It is April 7, 2026. I thought to start this morning’s comments I’d link the reader back to the morning of April 7, 2025 “hodl” and the evening wrap on April 7, 2025… an instructive contrast to this morning and a reminder this too shall pass. Narratives are not dissimilar, meaning extreme disruption, but markets are completely different meaning unstressed and completely indifferent.
in the news
The US and Israel bombed petrochemical complexes, industrial sites, bridges, and Kharg Island bunkers in the last 12 hours. Iran’s IRGC intelligence chief was killed. However, mortality remains extremely low. A handful of Iranian KIAs in the latest strike (fewer than 15). US/Israeli mortality hasn’t changed in 2 or 3 weeks.
There are credible reports from Amnesty International, BBC, and others that Iran is using children as young as 12 (and reports of an 11-year-old killed) as human shields. This tactic (embedding military assets/personnel in civilian sites like schools, hospitals, and populated areas) is noted by journalists as a war crime because the US and Israel emphatically forewarn targeting specific military sites.
ADP reported weekly employment up 25k vs 15k last week. In baseball news, I’ll let the latest AL East standings speak for themselves.
in the markets
May WTI is printing new contract highs as the window to surrender make a deal closes for Iran.
The stock market is doing its best to keep a stiff upper lip considering the circumstances. If JPM is calling a $145 low in Tesla… they can’t be far from the left hand side of the ladder themselves.
Rallies in bear trends make the market weaker…More on that in the vibe…
