the worm turns

market vibes

April 16… )

“Loyalty doesn’t mean much when everything is going good.”

Steady to dovish data so far today… oil demand forecasts have been incredibly disinflationary.

In the news

The most important overnight development for trading today is China's concession to negotiate a deal if Trump agrees to tell his cabinet to stop saying mean things about China. Balancing Xi's pressure of presence in Vietnam, Trump will attend tariff talks with Japan today, and "everything is on the table."

Citi and Bank of America followed in JPM and GS's footsteps with impressive beats yesterday, but their stock prices were unresponsive. Past performance probably means less than usual considering the uncertainties of the next 90 days. I have read a lot about cutting capital requirements and financial regs, but that's not top day.

Of the 35 "most read" articles in the BBG news feed, there is only one noting the new highs in gold, and it is #33. Perhaps half are about tariffs, and most of those are pro-China and Europe in tone. A few lines about Nvidia and chips. Iran and nukes, Ukraine, and Israel… fill in the blanks. The IV drips of information have gone from gushes of dopamine to trickles of saline… deliberately, IMO. Trade accordingly.

In the markets

The dollar is developing horizontally at the bottom of a six-month range. The yen looks poised to trend higher, and there's abuzz about cable and EUR.

Here’s the pound in monthly data. Looks iffy.

Quite a bit to unpack today: stocks bonds gold silver and oil all decelerating and more slo-mo trading… here we go…