the trick is not caring

market vibes

April 24…)

Data this morning includes initial claims at 8:30 and existing home sales at 10:00 EDT. New home sales came in stronger than expected yesterday at 724k vs 685 expected and in the upper decile of the last 4 years. In my opinion home buying is a form of sentiment reflecting confidence in the future.

I have never understood why initial claims are important but they are or would be if they ever changed. At any rate they came in 222 vs 222 expected vs a revised 221 last week. So… there it is.

In the news

Nothing market relevant strike me worth writing about this morning, the usual "Trump is bad, China is good" from Bloomberg. RFK Jr. is making progress getting poison out of the food supply, but stocks and gold don’t care much about Fruit Loops.

I saw a few posts yesterday on Telegram saying Bondi and Patel have been very busy, including transparency on Epstein’s client list. I think that means an unredacted black book. The JFK files were a dud. Just sayin’

In the markets

Oil is up again. Open interest rose 25k yesterday on the down move. Oil is not like gold; if OI rises 25k that means 2.5 million toz came in directionally.

There is a flat price dynamic in oil, but it’s heavily shrouded in spreads, cracks, and swaps like the Brent / WTI arb. What is important is whether changes in OI are correlated (or not) with price trends. If you look to the left of the chart, you can see OI falling with prices, usually a sign the market is liquidating from weak to strong hands, and that development preceded a modest rally within the range. That surge of OI was Janet Yellen leaking the drilling ban to her pals … and they got hosed on it.

At the moment, oil is flat and hedged, doing daily business. No one is jumping the gun because in oil… because KSA, Iran, Russia, Trump are frenemies or enemies … anything can happen with these guys, and everyone lies especially in oil.

S&Ps continue to decelerate. Zero change in OI, volume is meh, oscillators are flat, ranges are shrinking, and nothing in the way of events and news is on the horizon. Tariffs? The Fed? Politics? All spent bullets. Wait for an edge below 5200 or above 5450, in my opinion. Don’t chase.

Next up the dollar in the ditch, gold after shedding 10% in two sessions, silver is very steady at $33, bonds are in trouble, and bitcoin may take a breather… here we go.