My father, a veteran of the Korean conflict, would look out the kitchen window around breakfast time and instruct me on the weather to expect in the day ahead based on these lines learned on the decks of the USS Yancey.
Red sky at night, sailor's delight
Red sky in morning, sailor take warning
I unconsciously continue to guide my own weather predictions by these words. And in case you're wondering, we'll be celebrating Dad's 94th birthday at his favorite Thai restaurant next month.
Hi Petra, yw of course and thank you for your insights. it is ironic how easily our attention can be focused here and there. Some estimates I read early this morning think global debt will be as high at 420 trillion on jan 1 2027 based on trend. Global GDP is expected to come in between 115 trillion to 118 trillion in 2025 so the planet is running debt circa 250% of GDP now.
However, AI/ AGI is deflationary, full stop. Labor at all levels will cost exponentially less, particularly high end subject expertise, law, medicine, sciences, even the arts. Robotics will deflate manual labor even faster. And as I think you know... the arch enemy of debt is deflation. To wit my point this morning. Who owns it? The Dutch PGGM. Norway's sov fund. CalPers, other pvt pensions... but they are just billions. At any rate... The owner of debt in a period of deflation is an economic God.
I don't know HOW this chapter of money mania ends or WHEN... but I do think the forces of entropy, chaos, disorder etc are ever waiting in the wings to pounce. No one is thinking about defaltion but the gold world I grew up in knows 100%.... all collateral, as soon as it becomes collateral, is ultimately liquidated.
The five biggest entities in wealth Management of any sort, BR,VG, SS, FIDELITY and the Norwegians combine some 30 trillion. Total Cap of Stocks WW is said to be 70 tr. So they most likely have control of every major market. Except China I guess.
Still far from world debt. All 2500 Billionaires combine maybe 10 trillion.
All insurers, all Pension funds also don't add up. Grok says global debt, treasuries, bonds, notes, MBS etc. adds to 153 trillion. This is the share eligible for insurers and pension funds imo. So even that doesn't add up. And of course there are overlays. So where's the hidden rest?
Yes JJ I fully agree in the physics will prevail. Thank you.
Well you’re gonna get both barrels today folks, sorry. buckle up.
Burry is a hack and made the dumbest trade in history and then tried to manipulate the market to cover. Proof to follow along with a link to full Grok convo at end.
Here are the last 33 13F filings from Scion Asset Management sorted by date and filtered for how many days left until filing deadline.
From 33 filings, 1 stands out. Burry’s 11-03-2025 filing, which was preceded by a (at the time) cryptic tweet he made the Friday before (10-30-2025).
Palantir’s earnings were coming out after hours on 11-03-2025. Burry did something that is NEVER done in the industry and never even within Scion and released his positions (showed his hand) early by releasing his 13F >11< days early. This had the effect of stirring the hornets nest and causing downward pressure on PLTR, NVDA and the markets in general. What followed was a 15% down week for PLTR from a quarterly report that was by far their best ever and forward looking guidance that raised all estimates.
So you tell me, did Michael Burry break the law by manipulating the market, because he made an incredibly stupid gamble?
Quarter ending 2025-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2025-11-03, Deadline 2025-11-14, Days left: 11
• Quarter ending 2025-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2025-08-14, Deadline 2025-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2025-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2025-05-15, Deadline 2025-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2024-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2025-02-14, Deadline 2025-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2024-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2024-11-14, Deadline 2024-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2024-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2024-08-14, Deadline 2024-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2024-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2024-05-15, Deadline 2024-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2023-12-31 (13F-HR/A): Filed on 2024-02-16, Deadline 2024-02-14, Days left: -2
• Quarter ending 2023-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2024-02-14, Deadline 2024-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2023-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2023-11-14, Deadline 2023-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2023-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2023-08-14, Deadline 2023-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2023-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2023-05-15, Deadline 2023-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2022-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2023-02-14, Deadline 2023-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2022-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2022-11-14, Deadline 2022-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2022-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2022-08-15, Deadline 2022-08-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2022-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2022-05-16, Deadline 2022-05-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2021-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2022-02-14, Deadline 2022-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2021-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2021-11-15, Deadline 2021-11-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2021-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2021-08-16, Deadline 2021-08-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2021-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2021-05-17, Deadline 2021-05-17, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2020-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2021-02-16, Deadline 2021-02-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2020-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2020-11-16, Deadline 2020-11-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2020-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2020-08-14, Deadline 2020-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2020-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2020-05-15, Deadline 2020-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2019-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2020-02-14, Deadline 2020-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2019-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2019-11-14, Deadline 2019-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2019-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2019-08-14, Deadline 2019-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2019-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2019-05-15, Deadline 2019-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2018-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2019-02-14, Deadline 2019-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2016-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2016-11-14, Deadline 2016-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2016-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2016-08-15, Deadline 2016-08-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2016-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2016-05-16, Deadline 2016-05-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2015-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2016-02-16, Deadline 2016-02-16, Days left: 0
"If total extant global debt is $350 trillion by January 2025, and rising to $400 trillion by January 1, 2026 (with debt service at $20 trillion +/-) … who owns it? "
Around 2010 I stumbled about an exchange on Wikipedia. Stunning fact: the entry of Bush jun. had undergone 48 million amendments in the two years since his second term had ended.
I kept a closer eye on Wiki and found interesting and disturbing insights.
One thing I understood was: whoever important figure is not mentioned there is really powerful.
Maybe look for those who don't appear there and neither on Forbes 500 and you could find an answer to JJ 's question?!?
That Tom O’Brien Quote is just off-the-charts beautiful and touching.
Thank You for Sharing.
Indeed, thank you to all of our veterans.
My father, a veteran of the Korean conflict, would look out the kitchen window around breakfast time and instruct me on the weather to expect in the day ahead based on these lines learned on the decks of the USS Yancey.
Red sky at night, sailor's delight
Red sky in morning, sailor take warning
I unconsciously continue to guide my own weather predictions by these words. And in case you're wondering, we'll be celebrating Dad's 94th birthday at his favorite Thai restaurant next month.
Lucky you, sir... "A man is never lost at sea."
super last paragraph!
Thanks JJ for this much broader perspective on fundamentals you don't find in MSM. Never, for a reason.
Hi Petra, yw of course and thank you for your insights. it is ironic how easily our attention can be focused here and there. Some estimates I read early this morning think global debt will be as high at 420 trillion on jan 1 2027 based on trend. Global GDP is expected to come in between 115 trillion to 118 trillion in 2025 so the planet is running debt circa 250% of GDP now.
However, AI/ AGI is deflationary, full stop. Labor at all levels will cost exponentially less, particularly high end subject expertise, law, medicine, sciences, even the arts. Robotics will deflate manual labor even faster. And as I think you know... the arch enemy of debt is deflation. To wit my point this morning. Who owns it? The Dutch PGGM. Norway's sov fund. CalPers, other pvt pensions... but they are just billions. At any rate... The owner of debt in a period of deflation is an economic God.
I don't know HOW this chapter of money mania ends or WHEN... but I do think the forces of entropy, chaos, disorder etc are ever waiting in the wings to pounce. No one is thinking about defaltion but the gold world I grew up in knows 100%.... all collateral, as soon as it becomes collateral, is ultimately liquidated.
The five biggest entities in wealth Management of any sort, BR,VG, SS, FIDELITY and the Norwegians combine some 30 trillion. Total Cap of Stocks WW is said to be 70 tr. So they most likely have control of every major market. Except China I guess.
Still far from world debt. All 2500 Billionaires combine maybe 10 trillion.
All insurers, all Pension funds also don't add up. Grok says global debt, treasuries, bonds, notes, MBS etc. adds to 153 trillion. This is the share eligible for insurers and pension funds imo. So even that doesn't add up. And of course there are overlays. So where's the hidden rest?
Yes JJ I fully agree in the physics will prevail. Thank you.
Well you’re gonna get both barrels today folks, sorry. buckle up.
Burry is a hack and made the dumbest trade in history and then tried to manipulate the market to cover. Proof to follow along with a link to full Grok convo at end.
Here are the last 33 13F filings from Scion Asset Management sorted by date and filtered for how many days left until filing deadline.
From 33 filings, 1 stands out. Burry’s 11-03-2025 filing, which was preceded by a (at the time) cryptic tweet he made the Friday before (10-30-2025).
https://imgur.com/a/hkSYDys
Palantir’s earnings were coming out after hours on 11-03-2025. Burry did something that is NEVER done in the industry and never even within Scion and released his positions (showed his hand) early by releasing his 13F >11< days early. This had the effect of stirring the hornets nest and causing downward pressure on PLTR, NVDA and the markets in general. What followed was a 15% down week for PLTR from a quarterly report that was by far their best ever and forward looking guidance that raised all estimates.
So you tell me, did Michael Burry break the law by manipulating the market, because he made an incredibly stupid gamble?
Quarter ending 2025-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2025-11-03, Deadline 2025-11-14, Days left: 11
• Quarter ending 2025-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2025-08-14, Deadline 2025-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2025-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2025-05-15, Deadline 2025-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2024-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2025-02-14, Deadline 2025-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2024-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2024-11-14, Deadline 2024-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2024-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2024-08-14, Deadline 2024-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2024-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2024-05-15, Deadline 2024-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2023-12-31 (13F-HR/A): Filed on 2024-02-16, Deadline 2024-02-14, Days left: -2
• Quarter ending 2023-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2024-02-14, Deadline 2024-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2023-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2023-11-14, Deadline 2023-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2023-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2023-08-14, Deadline 2023-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2023-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2023-05-15, Deadline 2023-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2022-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2023-02-14, Deadline 2023-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2022-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2022-11-14, Deadline 2022-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2022-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2022-08-15, Deadline 2022-08-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2022-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2022-05-16, Deadline 2022-05-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2021-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2022-02-14, Deadline 2022-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2021-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2021-11-15, Deadline 2021-11-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2021-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2021-08-16, Deadline 2021-08-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2021-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2021-05-17, Deadline 2021-05-17, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2020-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2021-02-16, Deadline 2021-02-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2020-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2020-11-16, Deadline 2020-11-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2020-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2020-08-14, Deadline 2020-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2020-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2020-05-15, Deadline 2020-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2019-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2020-02-14, Deadline 2020-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2019-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2019-11-14, Deadline 2019-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2019-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2019-08-14, Deadline 2019-08-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2019-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2019-05-15, Deadline 2019-05-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2018-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2019-02-14, Deadline 2019-02-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2016-09-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2016-11-14, Deadline 2016-11-14, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2016-06-30 (13F-HR): Filed on 2016-08-15, Deadline 2016-08-15, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2016-03-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2016-05-16, Deadline 2016-05-16, Days left: 0
• Quarter ending 2015-12-31 (13F-HR): Filed on 2016-02-16, Deadline 2016-02-16, Days left: 0
https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5LWNvcHk%3D_e5c6975d-f5a1-47bc-b0a8-07296537ba98
Wow. Was it WaPo that had a piece "Don't do your own research!"
to prevent people to start thinking by themselve.
That piece obviously didn't work on you 😁.
Great dive.
I started thinking for myself when I realized trust is a commodity that is bought and sold and always in backwardation :)
So I short it exclusively.
I love your fine tuned sarcasm, if you don't mind that word.
https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3WP0QJ:0-michael-burry-of-big-short-fame-deregisters-scion-asset-management/
Well well well
Quote
"If total extant global debt is $350 trillion by January 2025, and rising to $400 trillion by January 1, 2026 (with debt service at $20 trillion +/-) … who owns it? "
Around 2010 I stumbled about an exchange on Wikipedia. Stunning fact: the entry of Bush jun. had undergone 48 million amendments in the two years since his second term had ended.
I kept a closer eye on Wiki and found interesting and disturbing insights.
One thing I understood was: whoever important figure is not mentioned there is really powerful.
Maybe look for those who don't appear there and neither on Forbes 500 and you could find an answer to JJ 's question?!?