the shift
Market vibes
February 25…)
“Honesty means nothing until you are tested under circumstances where you are sure you could get away with dishonesty.” Dorothy Parker
In the news
On February 23, Germany went to the polls and said, “Ich bin ein MAGA! ” Forty % of the voters for Alternative Für Deutschland did not vote in the last election.
Alice Weidel, Chancellor Candidate and Co-Leader of the AfD, was born in 1979 in Gütersloh, West Germany. Weidel is a 46-year-old economist with a PhD from the University of Bayreuth. She worked at Goldman Sachs and other financial firms before entering politics. She is gay lives part time in Switzerland with her partner and she has two children.
Some critics point to a conflict with the party’s traditionalist bias, but the voters underweighted her lifestyle for the overall platform she stands for. I think this says quite a lot about Germany.
The AfD’s 2025 manifesto reflects a mix of nationalist, anti-establishment, and populist policies, primarily shaped by German discontent over migration and the economy. A record-breaking 83.5% of voters cast ballots, the highest since German unification in 1990, of which 20.8% voted AfD (10.4 million of 49-50 million ballots) = 151 seats of 630 in the Bundestag.
Here’s the core of Weidel’s “Germany first” platform:
She promotes a “Germany for Germans” ethos, opposing “Islamification,” and supporting banning burqas and foreign-funded mosques.
Deportation regardless of safety of destination and ending birth-right citizenship.
Abolish the euro and return to the Deutschmark to reclaim monetary sovereignty. Weidel is a “dyed in the wool” Euroskeptic: “Exit the EU and drastically renegotiate Germany’s role in Europe.”
Lift sanctions on Russia and halt Ukraine aid, favoring neutrality or closer ties with Moscow. Weidel’s co-leader, Chrupalla, is explicitly pro-Russia.
Mandatory military conscription.
Cheaper energy by reviving coal, gas, and nuclear power, rejecting Germany’s green energy shift (which Weidel ties to economic decline).
The AfD opposes same-sex marriage in support of a traditional family model.
I thought it important for readers this morning to read about this stunning political shift in one of the most important nations in the modern world.
In other news Tucker did an extensive interview with Luke Gromen yesterday on everything “gold”. Worth an hour, imo. Trump said again in an co-interview with Macron at the White House yesterday: “We are going into Fort Knox.”
In the markets
Bitcoin broke 90k and made new lows for the year. The election gap has been a technical magnet for months, and the market is finally disposing of stale length.
In continuous weekly data, the true gap begins at 80,600, so looking at both daily and weekly data, the 80k area is going to see a lot of technical interest. I’m not focused on OI and volume now. I think it’s more important to stand aside and observe how the market responds to new prices. In my opinion, there’s no urgency to get involved, yet.
Updating aweak metals market, downtrends in oil, a lively rally in bonds and an enigmatic Yen this morning …and some trading insights in the vibe. Here we go!~
