February 5…)
“Let the river run
Let all the dreamers wake the nation
Come, the New Jerusalem”… Carly Simon 1988
In the News
ADP this morning: Surveys indicate job growth of 150k vs. 122k last month. ADP, which is essentially a straightforward tally of payroll checks to workers, has been significantly weaker than the BLS’ wool-of-bat and tongue-of-dog algo models. FWIW, Wall Street’s word algos do not trade ADP data. Therefore, no matter how bizarre NFP may be, the spontaneous algo reposes validate it as true.
Job openings continued to decline on trend yesterday because, as the Chair likes to say, “We’re in a good place.”
Tit-for-tat tariffs are parry and thrust between uncertain allies this week. The 10% solution is moot since it’s just a “call and raise” game, with China topping Trump’s 10% with 15% for now. So far, concessions are aligned with Trump’s primary mission to seal the borders.
This weekend I penned a piece called “the first ten days “ in which I drew many parallels between FDR’s early days in office and those of DJT. But I didn’t think to mention FDR’s “fireside chats,” a brilliant use of radio to bring the nation into the Oval Office and allow Americans to participate vicariously in real time as he laid out his plans to save the nation.
Yesterday, before a joint press conference with Bibi Netanyahu, in which President Trump proposed to take “ownership” of Gaza, Trump invited the press into the Oval Office to witness the signing of several EOs. This was perhaps the third or fourth time in two weeks that he has used an intimacy quite similar to FDR’s chats, allowing the press unfettered access to any and all questions without restriction.
I am lucky enough to have CNBC or FOX or some other news vendor on during the session, and I have been left agog at the President’s spontaneous command of every subject and plainspoken candor, frankly unheard of in politics. I am reminded of Mark Twain’s quip, “If you don’t lie, you don’t have to remember anything.” And of course, the press is forever desperate to catch him on the back foot.
Allow me to recommend an essay by Doomberberg this morning entitled ‘Undeclared”, a worthy and lucid overview of the fentanyl problem which is near to, if not the heart of these tariffs, in my most humble opinion.
In the Markets
Oil is lower. Gold is higher. Stocks are lower, and Bitcoin is holding its range. The dollar (DXY) may have put in a temporary top, and the bond market may be signaling a dovish NFP miss on Friday, currently surveyed at 170k vs. last month’s 256k. Let’s get started with gold:
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