the operational floor
market vibes
May 4…)
in the news
Since the markets are not validating any news items today, I will note the ones that are interesting…. the markets not the news. Gold is down again as oil rallies. I wish I could explain this divergence but I can’t. I do think its a red flag for gold and oil but I have no clue which one is waving it.
Confirmed: A U.S. official informed Axios that the rules of engagement for American forces in the region have been updated. Under these new guidelines, military units are now authorized to launch strikes against immediate threats targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, specifically highlighting Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fast attack boats and Iranian missile batteries as potential targets.
in the markets
The June/July WTI front spread is down almost $3.00 or 40% since April 29 and in vertical free fall this morning. This is the most transparent and accurate expression of demand for WTI today… as in this moment right now.
Flat prices are $5.00 off their highs but the chart still looks tense. Open interest is unchanged despite heated narratives, flat trend indicators and low volume. There is so much front running and price manipulation in oil futures it is highly likely all sides are using thin liquidity to validate their narratives.
Aggregate open interest unchanged for 3 sessions in a row. The only people making money are in the room. This is a range chopping specs to bits
In the stock market AI is still confirming its narratives by making new all time highs but stocks are pricey … very pricey.
Gold is down as tensions are supposedly heightened in the SOH. It is possible gold is saying something unrelated to the troubles in the middle east: “temporary”.
