the one eyed man

market vibes

April 25…)

"I've seen knights in armor panic at the first hint of battle. And I've seen the lowliest, unarmed squire pull a spear from his own body, to defend a dying horse.” Robin Hood of Locksley

In the news

The US and China said they are considering lesser tariffs in one form or another, a first step to detente. China stridently insists no trade discussions are underway: “US misleading the public.” Trump says they met with China yesterday.

Tokyo inflation rose to 3.4% in April, its fastest in two years. Holtzman joins LaGarde opining tariffs will be disinflationary deflationary. Euro/Yen? Or am I wrong?

Russia’s oil producers are drilling at the fastest pace in at least five years.

In the markets

The Dollar index may be sounding for a bottom with a developing isolated low. There’s respectable POC now in force ca 99, and prices are trading horizontally. It may rally into a test of the void above. This would fit with another leg down in commodities like gold and oil, higher bonds, etc. (next chart)… . At any rate, there may be a technical debate between the void and the isolated low unfolding. New lows in DXY from here… Katie bar the door.

There is a rising wedge in the Long bond similar to the rising wedge in S&Ps I noted in the wrap last night. These forms usually resolve higher as buyers below the market become more aggressive, raising the level of their bids into responsive sellers, in this case at 115. Ultimately, the buyers fill the sellers and auction higher, looking for more offers.

Winding up a weird week with the S&Ps/bonds twinship, high level ideas on gold, “to bitcoin or not to bitcoin” and some numbers to consider. Plus a personal wrap in the vibe… here we go.