the oath
market vibes
May 22…)
“Once you’re in, there’s no gettin’ out.” Tony Soprano
Data on tap this morning includes, initial jobless claims at 8:30 and existinghome sales at 10 EDT.
In the news
OPEC+ is contemplating another 411,000 bpd hike in production, to be determined by Zoom conference on June 1. The goal is to increase quota bpd by 2.2 million bpd by October.
The UK wants to cut the price cap on Russian oil, which is $60 per barrel or roughly equivalent to market prices now. For what it’s worth, Russian pipeline oil is exempted; in other words, 50% of Russian exports. At any rate, oil is transacted in volumes, not prices per se, which are assigned at loading for seaborne oil and at the point of delivery for pipelines. “The spice will flow.”
The DOE reported US crude inventories rose 1.328 million barrels last week, leaving commercial supplies about where they have been for the last decade or more.
In politics, Trump is being pilloried with uniform gusto in the press for raising the issue of racism in South Africa with Ramaphosa yesterday. Dimon says stagflation looms, but Powell shouldn’t cut (feathering his bed for a shot at Fed Chair in 2026?). The tax bill slithers toward an uncertain vote as soon as this afternoon.
In metals news, StanChart says gold may not go up anymore, but it probably won’t go down either if this, that, or something else does or does not happen. Bloomberg is cheerleading for copper again (what’s up with that?)
In the Markets
Gold has been under pressure since 11 PM EDT after making a high of $3,346 in Asia. It is now trading between its two dominant POCs of $3,325 and $3,240 and, having rejected the upper reaches of its range, is probably going to settle somewhere in the middle. $3300 looks as good a place as any.
Moving along with copper (the worst) and platinum (the best), oil being played, stocks at the base camp, bonds in trouble and bitcoin… and a personal view on the end of an era in the vibe.
