the hard yards

market vibes

September 2…)

“It is well that war is so terrible, otherwise we should grow too fond of it.” Robert E Lee

Well, September is here. Back to school, back to work, back to reality. The dollar is higher, stocks are down, oil is higher, gold and silver are higher, the war in Ukraine is hotter, and the geopolitical mood is sliding down an antemeridian slippery slope.

Images from the Sunday summit in China left no doubt where India’s bread is buttered; hand-holding and hugging often say more than oil and arms. As the war in Ukraine escalates vertically, prospects for a trade deal between Trump and Xi seem as likely as a rate hike on September 17. Six weeks ago, the BRICs were an irrelevant flop. This morning, far from it. Peace is in the ditch. Precious metals are flying, with oil threatening to follow them.

There are no algo-sensitive data releases today.

In the markets

For months, equities have traded on momentum and willful disregard for the developing schisms at home and abroad. For the moment, Wall Street’s ignorant bliss seems in the balance. Trump’s peace is stalled at the hard yards in the red zone. The Fed is sullied. The National Guard is headed to Chicago. I feel like a surgeon about to operate this morning, so let’s make the first incision…