June 24…)
“How many cares one loses when one decides not to be something but to be someone.” CoCo Chanel
Data this morning includes Philly Fed at 8:30 (April and May were the lowest since 2020). S&P real estate prices MoM (negative in May) and YoY (two-year low in May) at 9:00 AM EDT, and consumer confidence at 10:00 AM EDT.
Seven Fed speakers are on tap today throughout the session, among them Jay Powell at 10:00 AM. NATO has a pow-wow in The Hague. Trump is expected to have a low profile.
The Yuan continues to creep up, fixed at the best level since November. This chart looks lower, in my opinion (weaker dollar).
ProCap BTC, has agreed to go public by merging with a blank-check company, Columbus Circle Capital Corp. The combined company plans to have as much as $1 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet and has secured financing commitments from investors, including Magnetar Capital and Blockchain.com, according to various sources. Another bullet in the gun.
In the markets
WTI is down $2.00 after being down $4.00 on the peace news. Most of the commentary from BBG, Axios, and MSM is walking back pro-war nonsense in recent days, complaining something is wrong with the market. The simple analysis is, and has been, too much oil. It’s not going away, no matter what Israel and Iran choose to do from here. No amount of shrill war porn will stop production or increase consumption.
However, the ordinary rules of commerce still apply. It is summer, things are OK in America if not great, and driving season hasn’t changed.
Wholesale gasoline prices in the NY harbor are $2.16 for July delivery this morning, exactly what they were nominally 20 years ago. According to the BLS an equivalent price per gallon should be $3.39.
This is a DOE chart of demand for all refined petroleum products (mostly gasoline and distillates), which is about 1.5 million bpd lower today than it was in June 2005, meaning fuel prices are down about 60% in the 20-year sample as the US population rose 17% from 296 million in 2005 to 346 million in 2025.
WTI was trading at $61.00/barrel in 2005, $55 last month, $65 this morning.
A supply surge in 2014 put crude prices at an average of $50/barrel for six years. LNG is coming. Uranium. Solar is here to stay. Coal never went away.
In my opinion, the crude producer has gone from peak oil to selling as much of his oil reserves as possible at the highest price possible before refined products become bespoke and, ultimately in future decades, obsolete. That means market share above price.
Gold at the tippy top, silver just getting started, stocks look relentless in peace, bitcoin might be the safest haven because it is not one, and stranger things in the vibe…
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