spite fences
market vibes
July 10…)
in the news
From Bernstein via ZeroHedge: “The data center pipeline is actually going backward as very expensive GPU/memory paperweights (chips) pile up: “At today’s build rate, it would take 12 years to clear the 338 GW data center project pipeline, up from 10 years last month.”
The main roadblock is power infrastructure: Long grid interconnection queues (10+ years), shortages of large transformers (2+ year delays), and limited transmission capacity. Lesser but serious issues include permitting/zoning delays, local community opposition, and water for cooling.
Via BBG’s Javier Blas on X: “Global oil stocks posted an increase in June (entirely due to rising volumes of oil on water), according to IEA estimates. It’s the first monthly increase since the war, and comes after stocks fell ~360 million barrels (or ~3.9m b/d) from March through May.” This aligns with Wednesday’s EIA US crude inventory data up 3 mm bbls.
Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders says, Median existing home sales price hit a record high of $440,600 in June, but was up just +1.8% from a year earlier. However the BLS does not use actual real estate prices in CPI. They use owners’ equivalent rent which is a mythical fiction that doesn’t exist based on a sample of actual rents paid by 35% of the population and applied to 65% of the population that buy, sell and own houses.
This is the 800 pound gorilla saying the best investment is US debt which is currently sporting one of the largest short positions on record, according to the CFTC and SEC.
in the markets
Gold looks tempting but unconvincing in weekly data. The dollar value of Comex gold open interest is down about 50% from its January all-time highs. Prices and slow-stochs are trending down together and volume and liquidity is a dry river bed.
Gold can turn on a dime now. The best thing it has going for it is that it has nothing going for it. But… that can go on for some considerable time. It often does. I’m looking for a meaningful point of control to develop.
