six ways from sunday
market vibes
January 5 …)
“On the back of a cartoon coaster
In the blue TV screen light
I drew a map of Canada
Oh, Canada
With your face sketched on it twice
Oh, you're in my blood like holy wine
You taste so bitter and so sweet
Oh, I could drink a case of you,
And I would still be on my feet
Oh, I would still be on my feet.” Joni MItchell October 1970
In the News This Weekend
The Daily Mail is reporting that Trudeau’s resignation may be announced by Wednesday. Re-elected House Speaker Mike Johnson said the January 6 electoral certifications will proceed without issues today, despite a heavy winter storm threatening to disrupt travel.
Congestion pricing officially began yesterday, January 5, 2025, in New York City! The initiative, which has been debated opposed by midtown garages for decades, aims to reduce traffic congestion by charging drivers $9 during peak hours (5 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays and 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekends) and $2.25 during off-peak hours.
The zone is anywhere between Battery Park and 60th Street from the FDR Drive to the Hudson River. Singapore started doing it in the 70s and London voted for it in 2003. The city expect $15 billion in new revenue.
There is a 3 way kerfuffle between Musk, Starmer and Farage over Muslim grooming gangs raping young children in Britain long overdue, and unfolding on X. In the middle of it is a quasi-Mandellaesque Tommy Robinson. This is an item that has newsy legs and there will be a major political loser, imo.
In Washington, President Biden bestowed the nation’s highest civilian honor on George Soros and HRC among others yesterday, an incendiary act to many. But he also awarded it to Denzel Washington. In my opinion, the Medal of Freedom won’t make Soros any less of an ogre to people who despise him, and it won’t make Denzel any more respected than he already is. However, to me, awarding it Soros and Hillary diminishes the honor given to Mr. Washington, a unversally deserving recipient.
In the markets
February gold continues to oscillate around a well-balanced 30-day compression profile (chart below) indicating $2660 as the most actively traded price or point of control (POC). This is the place where the greatest number of trades have been located and it is the market’s preferred price to facilitate trading.
It’s also the price where the greatest number of losers are located, who will be forced to manage those losses when prices finally do move away from $2660.00.
Considering the uncertainties ahead… Jan 6, Carter’s Day of Mourning, funding the Treasury before Jan 14, MLK Day, the World Economic Forum, and the Presidential inauguration all fall on Jan 20…the FOMC on the 29th… Gold has very little incentive to initiate a major move yet, imo.
However the gold silver ratio has fallen from its H2 2024 highs of 90 toz silver to the ounce of gold, to 87.5 ounces of silver to the ounce of gold. That is money.
And gold has fallen from a 4-year high of 42 barrels of crude to the ounce, to 35.5 barrels to the ounce. A very big move lower for gold. But gold has held its gain against all its currency pairs, underscoring how weak paper money vs. commodities actually is everywhere at the moment.
It took me a minute to decide how best to express the incredible transfer of wealth from billions of people to the US financial sector in Q4 2024. But I’m going to begin with the Yen and work through it.
