shirts vs skins
market vibes
Monday February 9…)
In the news
The New England Patriots played one of the worst offensive games in Super Bowl history yesterday and… if it were possible, which I doubt, the ads were even less entertaining than the game. In a Truth tweet shortly after, Trump predicted the Dow will trade 100,000 before the end of his term. Time stamp it!
On social media … Instead of the plethora of glib 20-minute AI-generated fairy tales urging the innocent to buy silver… X is littered with posts warning of an imminent Comex default:
These range from shrill to dull and even a few droll memes. One of the more bearish developments in silver is the breadth of arcane nuances that everyone knows. What happened in the 90s with tin. The nickel shutdown. How an EFP works. SHFE/SGE/LBMA vs Comex. Why do they know it? Because they are long. A few things to keep in mind as 1st notice day approaches.
The chain of liability begins with the individual clearing member. Then the FCM Clearing Corp (all subsidiaries of the parents to limit tail risk) backstops the balance with cash settlement of reasonable damages. Finally the CME’s skin in the game if a systemic cascade were to threaten the entire futures universe.
FWIW when these things did happen in the past (and they do happen in commodities) the exchange shut the market until new rules and physical balance could be implemented and assured. Then for a time everyone settles up and usually trading restarts at a much lower level. More on what will probably happen in the vibe.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi romped to victory in a snap election. Yen futures are a few ticks higher on the CME. Oil is unchanged, stock indexes are down as usual. Bitcoin is down. Gold and silver steady to higher. No data of any kind today.
in the markets
Gold is moving horizontally on extremely light volume and low open interest. I think there may be a nascent point of control developing between $4,700 and $5,100 ish. I don’t see any new narratives and the old ones are still healthy and in force.
Technically gold appears to have found a POC at which it is willing to discount macro and technical developments with predictable liquidity… Balance with plenty of elasticity in the range for unexpected stress.
Silver is behaving a lot like gold but the tone of both is softening by the hour.
