plan B
market vibes
march 18…)
in the news
Iraq resumed (a teaspoon) crude exports via pipeline to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan (Reuters). The API reported crude inventories rose 6.5 mm bbls. The DOE reports at 10:30 this morning, consensus is estimating a 4 mm bbl build and a like draw in gasoline. France said they will help the US secure the Strait when the war is over.
Since Iranian missile attacks have fallen to a handful per day they have resorted to cluster bombs in civilian areas in Israel and GCC nations. Cluster bombs are considered a heinous weapon like land mines, and violate the Geneva Conventions, which prohibit weapons “of a nature to strike military objectives and civilians or civilian objects without distinction.” (Sources reporting CNN, Al Jazeera, Reuters) The use, production, stockpiling, and transfer of cluster munitions has been banned since 2008.
In finance… PPI doesn’t include the oil spike. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%. Op eds are leaning to curious why stocks haven’t gone down yet. If there is any other consumable news it’s buried under layers of war rubble.
The first pitch of the 2026 baseball season is scheduled for March 26. Yankees play the Giants away.
in the markets
Gold is developing lower albeit in muted ranges and extremely low volume. Open interest is flat to down, oscillators are trending lower. Depending on location of length an investor might ignore it. The risk is as I pointed out last night a cash panic across markets as the strait stays shut. If gold is a safe haven it is useless in times of stress if not deployed to a purposeful remedy.
Ghoulish morbidity persists in silver. Don’t overthink it. Move along.
NDX futures are holding but a lot of new long/short risk is going into futures. So far there are no definable winners or losers… but there will be..
One of great temptations in systematic trading is to “jump the signal” and be wrong when the real signal is against your precipitous position. Patience… it is all up to oil which in charts ahead doesn’t look as bullish as the press insists they should be.
WTI crude futures are not imparting a message of urgency.
