plan ahead
market vibes
July 17…)
Baker Hughes updates rig counts at 1:00 PM.
In the news
Trump’s speech was met with low decibel responses. A few loyalists posted views on X, nothing much in MSM. Politico portrays it as a vanilla speech common for all past presidents: “The Save Act is dead.” ICYMI… CNN and Newsmax have more in depth coverage than Fox.
There is a hefty amount of coverage on the clarity act today which may give bitcoin (down $1000) a lift.ft.
The IEA says oil demand will be lower in 2026 by an average of 1 mm bpd for the 1st time since 2020. OPEC sees it 1 mm bpd higher. In other words the war was a non event.
Global oil supply is forecast to drop by an average of 3.7 mm bpd to 102.6 this year with supply rising 7.5 mm bpd to 110 mmbpd in 2027. Note, these demand and supply data are heavily front loaded (Q 2 demand down 4.6 mm bpd, Q 3 down 1.7 and rising 1.2 mm bpd in Q-4). Supply rising to new highs next year. Despite the current hostilities the market is already looking beyond the war.
Air quality alerts cover a wide swath of the midwest and eastern states (no cycling today!) Spain is favored in the FIFA final on Sunday.
in the markets
WTI flat prices are steady to higher on continuing liquidation of open interest. Volume is light. Rallies in bear trends usually make the market weaker.
August heating oil (a proxy for all distillates) is making new contract highs.
For perspective heating oil in weekly data.
Silver in weekly data… no sign of a bottom in longer time frames.
