peace...one step at a time
market vibes
June 16…)
in the news
The same pundits are still clinging to the oil shortage narrative. They say the oil crisis is just beginning. The SPR is running out of oil. “Tank-bottom” in Cushing is critical. They say it will be months for trapped ships to exit the SOH. These people do know better but they persist.
As of June 9, CFTC COTs reported on June 12, net spec length in combined WTI, Brent, RBOB, heating oil and gasoil was circa 427,000 contracts (or 427 mm bbls) of petroleum futures; a notional $7 billion debit MTM in 4 sessions … as I type.
The oil market does not need or care about tomorrow today if it can put a price on it. As long as buyers and sellers are confident oil exists in an available form and location it can be bought and sold. Confidence in “the deal” and an open SOH is bringing millions of barrels of oil to market that heretofore was not available and restricted by a blockade …that oil will soon be transacted on screens and delivered within weeks.
According to Javier Blas on X this morning: “The time spreads of some key Middle Eastern crude grades have collapsed. Murban from UAE is now in contago, even before Hormuz formally re-opens with the signing of the deal, scheduled for Friday.”
July/August WTI is trading below its March 2 settlement just $0.52 cents from contango.
QatarEnergy, which operates the country’s LNG facility, has told buyers that it expects to raise output to about 50% of capacity a month after safe passage through the strait is restored, and to roughly 80% within two months. Multiple sources describe Qatar as supplying around 20% of global LNG pre-crisis (second-largest exporter after the US).
In the 2026 WGC Central Bank Gold Reserves (CBGR) survey conducted between 5 February and 19 May, respondents overwhelmingly (89%) believe that global central bank gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months.
The BOJ hiked to 1%, a 31 year high. What did the snail say riding the turtle? “Slow the fk down!”
In the markets
Stocks are clinging to their highs. Usually a market that clings to its highs implies unfilled buying below..
