Onions

market vibes

October 29 … )

“I always carry a flagon of whiskey in case of snakebite.” W.C. Fields (1930) … “And furthermore I always carry a small snake.”

In the news without comment.

In the markets 

Bitcoin out of the gate. 

If we were climbing Everest these range tops noted on the chart below would be the great peaks surrounding the summit and the infinite sky above. In this hour and date, the view would be crystal and windless just as the markets around us are this morning.

There are now just $6000 dollars between a new ATH in bitcoin and the December CME futures. At settlement cob October 28, open interest footed 32, 086 contracts, and at 5 coins per lot = 160, 430 coins = 16% of total known and potential bitcoin supply with a notional value of $11 billion or … equal to just 40% BlackRock's IBIT AUM at $28 billion (BBG data 10/29). That is just one ETF. There are 33 more, 22 of them futures ETFs.  

Last night I closed my evening wrap with a simple declarative three words, “It looks ready.” 

Oil held it opening lows yesterday in brisk volume of just under a million contracts as if a single buyer lent determined liquidity to stop a plunge (my sniff). OI rose 57 k lots, and prices are steady this morning.

This makes technical analysis easy. Rising OI and lower prices below yesterday’s lows implies sellers are in control and a nascent trend is beginning. rising prices and rising OI implies the range remains in force and 57k new shorts will probably lose money. The larger picture is what it is. Not great for either longs or shorts, imo.  

In FX, the Yen continues to decline on trend. Inversely, USD/FX continues is vertical rally. This strong dollar dynamic is creating new all-time highs for gold in Yen, Yuan, Euros and many other G 20 and EM USD FX pairs every day. I’ll get into that next.  

In other markets  Gold is quietly cresting a new ATH in its usual soporific style. I like this “no drama,” nothing to prove ascent.