one day at a time
market vibes
October 17…)
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.” Marcus Aurelius
Data releases today
Baker Hughes oil rigs and total rig count, both rising as prices fall at 1 PM EDT. Net long-term TIC flows at 4:00 PM, +49 billion in July down from +247 billion in May. *Treasury International Capital flows track foreign and domestic cross-border portfolio investments in Treasuries, agency bonds, equities, and foreign securities. China??
In the news
Regional Bank Indexes fell 6% yesterday on reports of bad loans and potential fraud. Zions Bancorp fell 20% after disclosing loss provisions on commercial real estate. Western Alliance dropped 15% on allegations of borrower fraud. Checking the data, more bark than bite.
Grok: “As of the end of Q2 2025 (June 30, 2025), the latest available data shows U.S. FDIC-insured banks held $5.682 trillion in total investment securities (primarily U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities), with aggregate unrealized losses of $395.3 billion. U.S. banks’ aggregate unrealized losses on investment securities (primarily Treasuries and agency MBS) totaled $515.5 billion as of the end of Q1 2023 (March 31, 2023), per the FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile.” Peak mtm losses during the SVB scandal were $620 billion.
Mamdani comes out the debate at 83% on polymarket.
Moneyball in Milwaukee? The Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners are tied 2 games each in the best-of-7 for American League pennant. Game 5 tonight in Seattle. The L.A. Dodgers are leading the Milwaukee Brewers 3-0. The best baseball would probably be the Brewers and the Mariners (or the Jays), but the networks want the Dodgers for the biggest audience. If the Brewers can win it being 3 games down, it would be huge for the game, but it feels a bit like Oakland in 2002.
In the markets
A final check down of SLV open interest before the expiry of serious volume of ITM call options cob today. A few musings on gold and where it’s next major POC might be, stocks getting another lifeline from trump, and bitcoin restesting critical support. Plus a few thougts on the end of the world … in the vibe…
