old friends are best
market vibes
June 15…)
U.S.-Iran Deal Doesn’t Mean a Swift Return of Oil and Gas Flows
Me to Grok, ” Various networks quote kplr saying there are 500 tankers trapped in the gulf loaded with oil ready to come out... pls verify.”
Grok, “Yes. 220 oil tankers many VLCCs…95 bulk carriers…135 other vessels (cargo, etc.) Risk-tolerant operators and priority laden VLCCs move first.” If 50% of oil carriers are VLCCs = 200 mm bbls.
“Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has spent 15 years arguing the central bank says too much. Wednesday is his first meeting.” Nick Timaraos, WSJ. Amen brother…
This is not random…
finally… AI weeding broccoli, protenteous of things to come.
in the markets
July WTI has not extended its range lower since the President’s post around 6 PM last night.
The front spread has not continued to fall either but September/October and Q 4 spreads are trading at the lowest since the March 9 spike (next chart) and reversal on March 10.
We have a 1-bar down in September RBOB trading $2.81/gallon developing lower. Gasoline is so cheap and has been so cheap throughout the war, I doubt it’s going to plunge but systematic fund longs should be selling with this technical configuration.
3/2/1 margins are higher because crude is falling faster than refined products. There is a general sense of calm across the board. Actually, apart from the modestly lower prices and softer spreads discounting an open SOH, there’s no difference in the mood or tone of the market with the SOH is opening than when it was closed.
I think that underscores the idea for the last 60 days of the 90-day conflict most of the shortage hype was fake. I could be wrong but something is different. More on this in the vibe…
