off sides

market vibes

October 16…)

“On third down and short yardage, the Raiders don’t jump offside. That’s discipline - not a coat and tie, not a clean shave.” John Madden

In the news

I see Philly Fed data is scheduled for release at 8:30, so it appears the Fed is still drawing their paychecks. fwiw, the IRS closed most of its operations and furloughed most of its staff on October 8.

When asked by a reporter if the U.S. is ready for a sustained trade war, Scott Bessent said, “We are in one now.” Trade Rep. Jamison Greer said, “The scope and the scale (of China’s threats) are just unimaginable and cannot be implemented.” I agree. Sanctions do not work whether for oil or rare earths. Tariffs do.

No fewer than six FOMC governors will opine on rates and economic matters today. The FOMC’s audience is about the size of Canadian housing starts lately but no matter. The show must go on. Speaking of Canada, the Toronto Jays crushed the Seattle Mariners last night as the American League playoffs get underway.

In the markets

Precious metals traded to new all-time highs overnight and equities push higher. One asset class is feeding on trade tensions; the other is ignoring them. Financial earnings continue to beat expectations. Silver and gold appear to be attratcing some length in futures for a change. Copper is caught in the middle of the trade war and it’s time to choose sides in the vibe… let’s get started.