no stress

market vibes

January 29…)

"Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.” Jensen Huang

In the news:

Three rate decisions today: The Fed at 2 PM, Canada at 3:45, and BRL tonight at 10:30 EST.

MSFT says they were “ex-filtrated” by DeepSeek. Alibaba claims they have an even better and cheaper AI product than DeepSeek. Whether or not this rising riot of new “me too” players (META, AAPL, et al.) is game theory, Moore’s law—time will tell. The Betamax and VHF showdown was a one-on-one thing. This is getting to be a trillion-dollar bar fight.

The EU wants to ban Russian Ali. Trump wants to tariff it. CHALCO 1-year and 3-month Ali below… yawn.

Consumer confidence fell to an unfrothy four-month low yesterday. Reading The Daily Shot and its collection of global data, the planet is not doing well or poorly. People are not happy, but that does not mean they are unhappy—except for Germany. They are angry.

A poll conducted by the largest newspaper in Greenland and one of the largest in Denmark showed that only 6% of Greenlanders want to leave the Danish Kingdom to become part of the USA, with 85% against the idea and 9% undecided. This poll was conducted from January 22–26, 2025, with a sample size of 497 Greenlanders, or 0.00833% of the population. I wonder what the other 99.99167% of the population think…

My vibe

Nothing is moving this morning, and there is an absence of stress. No one wants to admit it, but the economic outlook is not very exciting. Everyone is sanctioning someone or banning or embargoing something. The mood in Europe is depressing. The mood in the U.S. is hopeful, but the future is blurry, and huge problems with funding and trade lie ahead. Allies are frenemies no matter who or where.

The markets are so not Goldilocks, and a lot of people are wondering why they have so much risk for so little return, not just on capital, but return of capital, too.

Here is the schedule for the confirmation hearings for today and tomorrow if you care to tune in to C-SPAN.

Today:

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services: 10:00 AM EST before the Senate Finance Committee

Tomorrow:

• Kash Patel for FBI Director: 9:30 AM EST before the Senate Judiciary Committee

• Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence: 10:00 AM EST before the Senate Intelligence Committee

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services: 10:00 AM EST before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions

Live Cattle Futures made all time highs yesterday.

Eggs…

NVidia this week:

the 90s… jic you forgot

Good luck today.

JJ

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