next victim
Market vibes
March 20… )
“In 2007, everybody saw the housing market was falling, and at any given moment a lot of people thought it was going to fall more, and a lot of people thought it was going to rebound. You just didn't know.” Lloyd Blankfein
Initial claims on the money this morning as usual. Existing home sales and LEI at 10AM. S&P global manufacturing data tomorrow so, the markets are pretty much on their own until next week.
Looking back at yesterday’s FOMC, Alex Manzara of RJO fixed income trading in Chicago posted this FOMC summary of economic projections for the end-of-2025 below. He writes: “Stephanie Pomboy was on Finance Unfiltered (Jim Iuorio and Bob Iaccino podcast) and she mentioned that not only had the Federal Gov't ramped up spending and hiring, but that state and local gov'ts also greatly benefited from the fed'l fiscal gravy train, However, these governmental entities are bound by balanced budgets. She predicts a harsh retrenchment that hasn't hit yet.”
A glance at this data confounds the reader. Powell said yesterday the FOMC needs to see persistent trends of data to act. Why will the FOMC not cut rates? My take in the vibe this morning.
In the news today
Trump: “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S. Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” I wish he’d tone down the Caps and exclamation marks.
Here is an excellent example of how idiotic AI can be in this “AI Summary generated by Bloomberg”: “Gold prices steadied near a record high after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged uncertainty from President Donald Trump's policy changes.” In my opinion, of all the reasons gold is going up, none has been more thoroughly discounted than Tariffs.
Iran says it will respond to Trump’s demand-letter in coming days. “US President Donald Trump’s letter to Iran ‘primarily carries a tone of threat but also claims to present opportunities,’” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says in televised statements. Pro-peace, dovish oil.
In the markets
Around 5 AM, US stocks dipped for 2 hours. NDX fell almost 200 handles from the close last night. In fact, the indexes were higher all morning in London. I couldn’t find any news related to the selling on Bloomberg, and prices have steadied in the last hour.
Trump and Bessent have been consistent for weeks: Stock markets are going to Detox. This high volume plunge has been a fairly obvious cold turkey affair. Every day from late February to early March, a slew of competing twaps hit the auction with complete disregard for price. “Am I filled?” was the prime object every day. The sheer size of it was gob-stopping.
Since the March 11 lows of 19,345.75 basis June NDX futures, the selling has ebbed enough to balance the auction, and some bargain hunting has added a modest bid. But the longs are swimming in an ocean of disintermediate supply, and I expect those March 11 lows will be tested, if not broken.
Q1 is drawing to a close. Statements will be opened. Taxes will be due on last year’s gains and income. June NDX futures daily data chart below.
In March 2024 stocks were making 2 or 3 new all time highs every week. Where will be be in march 2026? NDX futures weekely data chart below.
Gold is unchanged on nonexistent volume and a paltry increase of 5k lots yesterday. I am agog to see the relic rising $100/toz on whispers. We are truly in another dimension of space and time where down is up and up is up and oysters walk with feet.
Comex April gold chart below.
In other metals, copper is down a few cents but the trend, is impressive (chat below). Silver is predictably lower in front of the SLV expiry tomorrow…because you know what that means…
Moving along with the gold-silver ratio, bonds, bitcoin and WTI … and the next victim in the vibe… here we go.
