mr. october
market vibes
September 23…)
You don’t just accidentally show up in the World Series. Derek Jeter
Data today worth watching: M2 money supply at 1:00PM (1 year chart below)
In the news
Trump speaks at the UN, his subject being the rise of America. Chair Powell speaks at 12:35 p.m. EDT at the Economic Outlook Luncheon in Warwick, Rhode Island. The earth turns.
In the markets
As gold makes record highs again let's start with a monthly chart this morning. In longer time frames gold is in the 13th month of a 15-month sample posting higher highs and higher lows. The last time the Directional Movement Index (red and blue bars) posted a negative reading in monthly data was November 2022.
Vertical range extension higher in April established a 5-month period of horizontal activity in which a long period of price compression created a massive POC (point of control) at $3385.00 basis December Comex gold. Range compression is simply an accumulation of potential energy that releases when the weak side of the range capitulates and prices auction away from it.
In this case sellers were exhausted and short covering combined with unfilled buyers had to compete for offers to trade and we are still trying to find balance in monthly data... to wit prices are in currrently a vertical price void.
(Comex gold continuous monthly data)
In daily data, open interest is beginning to rise but as you can see the long side has dominated OI rising and falling with prices since June. However, OI has not trended higher until this rally because prices have been rangebound since April.
Bottom line, the uncrowded nature of activity on the Comex favors the longs. Not only is there considerable room for more of them, but every long since Bretton Woods is in credit and every seller is losing money as I type this morning; a dynamic that puts tremendous pressure on the short side of the OI.
Comex December gold daily data
Let’s look at the day structure and a some profiles in gold in depth and take a long time fame view of silver… plus some tradable ideas the stock market … and finally a sports metaphor for month end and quarter end in the vibe.
